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Countdown to "Double New" subsidies: local governments and car companies are both making efforts as the end of the year approaches, and the car market enters the sprint phase.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as of December 13, 2024, the "Double New" subsidy policy has driven Passenger Vehicle sales to exceed 5.2 million units, including over 2.51 million units from scrapped vehicles and over 2.72 million units from replacement vehicles. Meanwhile, many local governments have intensified efforts to implement policies to promote Consumer spending on Autos.
In November, China's industrial added value above the designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with New energy Fund, Siasun Robot&Automation, and integrated circuits leading the growth.
From January to November, the added value of large-scale industries grew by 5.8% year-on-year. Among them, the production of New energy Fund vehicles, Siasun Robot&Automation, and integrated circuit products increased by 51.1%, 29.3%, and 8.7% respectively.
Statistics Bureau: From January to November, national Real Estate Development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year.
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to November, national Real Estate Development investment was 9363.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; among which, Residence investment was 7119 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.
A year-on-year increase of 32%! Global electric vehicle sales have set historical highs for three consecutive months, with China accounting for 70% of the market.
The performance of the China market is impressive, with sales in November growing by 50% year-on-year to reach 1.27 million vehicles, accounting for about 70% of Global total sales. Overall Auto sales in China for November increased by 16.6% compared to the previous year, marking the highest growth rate since January this year. BYD is expected to exceed the annual Global sales target and surpass Ford and Honda.
Aim for 30 million vehicles for the whole year, with RBOB Gasoline vehicles experiencing a "four consecutive months increase". The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers calls for early implementation of consumer promotion policies next year.
1. The domestic sales of traditional fuel Passenger Vehicles reached 1.21 million units, a decrease of 0.105 million units compared to the same period last year, with a month-on-month growth of 16.2% and a year-on-year decline of 8%. 2. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Industry Association, urged that relevant policies to promote Consumer spending on Autos continue next year and be implemented as soon as possible.
The momentum for trade-ins is strong! In November, china's sales of new energy fund vehicles increased by 50% year-on-year, setting a new record, while exports fell by 6.3%.
In November, the Passenger Vehicle market achieved historic highs in retail, wholesale, production, and exports, with explosive growth in Electric Vehicles. The Passenger Car Association noted that the majority of scrappage replacements and some trade-in customers chose to purchase Electric Vehicles. Subsidy policies, particularly those promoting entry-level pure electric vehicles and the narrow plug-in hybrid market, strongly boosted growth and further solidified the expansion foundation for Electric Vehicles penetration.
In November, the electric vehicle market experienced explosive growth, with nearly 80% of A/H share listed car companies seeing their sales increase year-on-year, and many setting new records.
① In November, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.268 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.5% and a month-on-month growth of 5.9%, with the domestic retail penetration rate of electric vehicles reaching 52.3%; ② In November, the explosive growth of new energy vehicles reflects the market's positive feedback on the national scrapping and updating program and the "double new policy" of replacing old with new; ③ Twelve auto manufacturers achieved a year-on-year increase in sales in the new energy market in November.
A newcomer in the U.S. Senate claims to end subsidies for electric vehicles, allowing consumers to decide which models to purchase.
① Bernie Moreno, the incoming senator from ohio in the usa, stated that if he becomes the "autos czar" in the next Trump administration, one of his top priorities would be to eliminate the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles; ② Moreno emphasized that the "market should play a role," calling for an end to government intervention in businesses, and advocated for creating a favorable tax, regulatory, and labor environment for auto companies.
In many areas of fujian, mortgage rates have been adjusted to 3.1%. Experts say that ultra-low rates are unsustainable and banks are correcting their "involution-style" competition.
①In multiple cities in Fujian Province including Xiamen, Fuzhou, Putian, etc., the housing loan interest rate has been uniformly raised from 3.05% to 3.1%. ②The unclear lower limit of interest rates has caused internal price competition among banks, this adjustment is a correction to excessively low interest rates and does not mean policy tightening.
Will the first home loan interest rate in Qingdao be raised to 3.1%? Several local banks responded.
① Most bank branch staff have indicated that they have not yet received any notification about an increase; a few bank branch personnel, however, admitted that there is a possibility of an increase; ② The cost and revenue of mortgage lending need to be balanced, and some banks previously offered favorable interest rates that are generally at the extreme position of such a smooth line. Even if there are adjustments, mortgage rates remain at a relatively low level overall.
What "bottlenecks" are faced when repurchasing existing land? Real estate companies: price is one important factor.
The "stumbling block" issues that arise in revitalizing idle inventory land include the difficulty of reaching a consensus on the recycling price of the original plots between companies and the government. If the land is reclaimed at the current market price, the willingness of companies to participate is not high. There are many restrictions on the adjustment of land types, which involve the need to make additional land price payments; Analysts believe that the inventory idle land that can generate incremental value and achieve financial balance after being reclaimed, or the focus of current local government acquisitions.
At the end of the year, the "sales boost battle" in the car market has begun: multiple car companies have updated the December car purchase benefits, with BYD's terminal prices showing a slight loosening.
BYD has launched various popular car models with different levels of discount policies in December. leapmotor, which has already completed its annual sales target ahead of schedule, updated the car purchase benefits for December on December 2nd.
Will the sales of the top 100 real estate companies drop month-on-month in November? Will there be a strong finish in December?
① November is the second complete calendar month after the "926" easing policy. Overall, real estate companies' sales have declined compared to October; ② "It is expected that real estate companies will maintain strong promotional efforts in December to boost performance, and sales in top 100 companies and core cities are likely to continue improving on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis."
Hefei issued 44 million yuan in consumer vouchers and Ideal launched a zero-interest financial plan. Local governments and car companies are competing for the year-end "consumption wave".
① On November 29, according to the Hefei Municipal Bureau of Commerce, from November 29 to December 8, 2024, new consumer vouchers for autos will be issued in Hefei, totaling 44 million yuan. ② On the same day, Li Auto announced a limited-time 0% interest policy until the end of the year. From now until December 31, users purchasing the Li L-series and Li MEGA can enjoy a minimum down payment financing plan with 0% interest for 3 years.
Under the dual pressures of 'price wars' and electrification transformation, this year will see 4,000 4S stores close down. Traditional dealers are 'abandoning' rbob gasoline vehicles and embracing new energy.
① The deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, Lang Xuehong, recently predicted that the number of 4S stores expected to withdraw from the market this year will reach 4,000. ② In the past year, more than 40 traditional luxury brand dealers have chosen to switch to Nio. ③ Zhongsheng Hldg announced that it has signed a preliminary agreement with Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock, and both parties agree to further negotiate on the cooperative distribution of new energy fund.
Niu Sen openly challenges Trump: If you cancel electric vehicle subsidies, California will pay for it themselves.
① Newsom stated that if the Trump administration cancels the federal tax credit, California will restart its own subsidy program; ② According to the latest data, the total number of zero-emission autos sold in California has exceeded 2 million; ③ During Trump's first term, a dispute occurred with Newsom regarding automobile emission standards.
Follow up on Guangzhou! First-tier cities all cancel the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, what is the market impact?
① With Guangzhou's official announcement today, all four first-tier cities have now canceled the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. ② "For first-tier cities, after canceling the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences, it can significantly reduce the value-added tax costs in the second-hand housing trade process, lower transaction costs, and promote improving demand."
Taking the lead independently, with foreign investment closely following; range-extended hybrid technology sweeping the global market.
①On November 20 local time, Stellantis Group announced the launch of the STLA Frame vehicle platform. ② Stellantis Group introduced that vehicles equipped with this platform will first be equipped with innovative powertrains, including pure electric and extended-range, and in the future can also be equipped with internal combustion engines, hybrid power, and hydrogen energy power systems.
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: The historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.