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Brokerage morning meeting highlights: The effect of the real estate market stabilizing after the decline may gradually become apparent, and the Industry valuation may rise.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, HTSC proposed that the enhancement of Technology attributes may elevate the valuation levels of symbols related to the gaming Industry; Soochow believes that the short-term adjustment in the Construction Machinery Sector does not change the positive trend for the entire year; Galaxy Securities stated that the effects of the real estate market stabilizing may gradually become apparent, and the Industry valuation may rise.
In February, the year-on-year decline in new housing sales narrowed by 14.5 percentage points. What signals does the return of housing to "Consumer" convey?
① From the performance of housing prices in February, the number of cities with declining new and second-hand housing prices has increased, indicating that the real estate market is still in a phase of stabilization. ② The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" announced on March 16 includes housing demand in the category of "Consumption Upgrade," and it is expected that supportive policies will continue to be introduced to optimize related restrictive measures.
National Bureau of Statistics: From January to February, national Real Estate Development investment reached 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics announcement, from January to February, nationwide Real Estate Development investment reached 1,072 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the annual total from last year; among this, Residence investment was 805.6 billion yuan, down 9.2%, with the decline narrowing by 1.3 percentage points.
Ni Hong, the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, spoke at the Two Sessions: four major measures to ensure the stability and recovery of the real estate market.
① "We will work with relevant departments to combine short and long-term measures, addressing both symptoms and root causes, and resolutely stabilize the real estate market," said Ni Hong, the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. ② Regarding how to stabilize the real estate market, Ni Hong stated that efforts will be made in four aspects.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: The combination of AI applications and high-quality Hardware carriers brings new growth opportunities in Consumer scenarios.
In today's brokerage morning meeting, China International Capital Corporation stated that the market performance in the second half of the year is expected to be better than in the first half; Sinolink believes that the probability of achieving a "stop falling and stabilize" target in the real estate sector by 2025 is relatively high; Huaxi pointed out that the combination of AI applications with high-quality Hardware carriers brings new growth opportunities in Consumer scenarios.
The government work report first mentioned "stabilizing the real estate market" and first-tier cities are expected to continue to reduce restrictive measures.
① Chen Changsheng, deputy director of the State Council Research Office, stated that including stabilizing the real estate and stock markets in the overall requirements of the "Government Work Report" is the first time; ② The government work report today mentioned, "Policies are adjusted based on local conditions to reduce restrictive measures," which indicates an important direction for this year's policies, namely that the purchase restrictions may still be adjusted and optimized.
The LPR Quote for February is out! The one-year and five-year rates remain unchanged.
The 1-year LPR is 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR is 3.6%, both unchanged from the previous values.
The LPR remained unchanged in January. Will mortgage rates decrease again in 2025?
① Since January, the policy interest rates, which are the basis for LPR Quotes, have stabilized, suggesting that the January LPR Quote will remain unchanged. ② There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with the total reduction expected to reach 50 basis points for the year, which is higher than the 30 basis points reduction from the previous year, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the LPR Quote.
Statistics Bureau: In 2024, national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the previous year.
In 2024, the national Real Estate Development investment is 10,028 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, of which Residence investment is 7,604 billion yuan, down 10.5%.
Real estate Bonds plummeted, with the decline of "0.21 million科02" expanding to 27% after a trading halt. This year, real estate companies still have over 500 billion Bonds to repay.
In 2024, the Real Estate Industry achieved a total domestic credit Bonds financing of 344.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. In 2025, the maturing Bonds balance for real estate companies is 313.547 billion yuan, with a repurchase balance of 227.444 billion yuan, where March and June are peak repayment months.
Pan Gongsheng: The level of Real Estate transactions has improved, and research shows that residents' willingness to purchase homes is steadily increasing.
① Pan Gongsheng stated that recently the central government has further clarified that local government special Bonds can be used to recover idle stock land, acquire newly stored land, and purchase existing Commodity housing, which will accelerate the de-inventory process in the Real Estate market and stabilize the real estate market. ② According to the survey data released by the China Index Academy today, the willingness of residents to purchase homes has been stable with a slight increase recently; overall, most city markets are continuing to adopt a strategy of exchanging price for volume.
It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: It is expected that 2025 will be the first year when the Real Estate Industry truly achieves stability and long-term development.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC proposed that 2025 will be the year when the Real Estate Industry truly stabilizes and moves forward; Tianfeng stated that industry demand is expected to recover, and the Autos Sector may gradually become optimistic; China Securities Co.,Ltd. pointed out that the current valuation of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) Sector remains low overall, highlighting its long-term investment value.
The land market in core cities is partially heated in 2024, and a differentiated market trend may continue next year | Promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.
① In 2024, changes in the Real Estate Industry's land market will become an undeniable chapter. ② The support of special bonds for the acquisition of existing land and the adjustment of land auction policies in first-tier cities may have a significant impact on the future land market.
Why has the implementation of Real Estate 'acquisition' been slow?
① "Although some places have announced the situation of storage, overall, the acquisition of stock land and commercial housing in various regions faces multiple difficulties, making the related implementation work not easy." ② Whether it is repurchasing idle land or acquiring existing commercial housing, there is a certain time interval from raising funds to completing the storage; how to ensure that funds can be effectively circulated within a certain period and achieve expected returns is also a factor that various regions have to consider.
Statistics Bureau: From January to November, national Real Estate Development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year.
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to November, national Real Estate Development investment was 9363.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; among which, Residence investment was 7119 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.
In many areas of fujian, mortgage rates have been adjusted to 3.1%. Experts say that ultra-low rates are unsustainable and banks are correcting their "involution-style" competition.
①In multiple cities in Fujian Province including Xiamen, Fuzhou, Putian, etc., the housing loan interest rate has been uniformly raised from 3.05% to 3.1%. ②The unclear lower limit of interest rates has caused internal price competition among banks, this adjustment is a correction to excessively low interest rates and does not mean policy tightening.
Will the first home loan interest rate in Qingdao be raised to 3.1%? Several local banks responded.
① Most bank branch staff have indicated that they have not yet received any notification about an increase; a few bank branch personnel, however, admitted that there is a possibility of an increase; ② The cost and revenue of mortgage lending need to be balanced, and some banks previously offered favorable interest rates that are generally at the extreme position of such a smooth line. Even if there are adjustments, mortgage rates remain at a relatively low level overall.