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It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
Year-end review | In 2024, the CNI Yangtze Index mortgage rates will experience a "three consecutive declines". The LPR in 2025 is expected to continue to decrease, and mortgage rates are likely to stabilize at a low level.
① This year, the LPR has experienced three significant reductions, with the one-year LPR down a total of 35 basis points and the five-year LPR down a total of 60 basis points, both annual declines reaching new highs since the LPR reform. ② After the re-pricing at the beginning of 2025, the interest rate for existing first-time home loans will decrease by a total of 110 basis points to 3.3%. From the perspective of Consumer, the reduction in interest rates on existing home loans significantly boosts Consumer spending.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: It is expected that 2025 will be the first year when the Real Estate Industry truly achieves stability and long-term development.
At today's Brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC proposed that 2025 will be the year when the Real Estate Industry truly stabilizes and moves forward; Tianfeng stated that industry demand is expected to recover, and the Autos Sector may gradually become optimistic; China Securities Co.,Ltd. pointed out that the current valuation of the Baijiu(Chinese Liquor) Sector remains low overall, highlighting its long-term investment value.
The land market in core cities is partially heated in 2024, and a differentiated market trend may continue next year | Promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.
① In 2024, changes in the Real Estate Industry's land market will become an undeniable chapter. ② The support of special bonds for the acquisition of existing land and the adjustment of land auction policies in first-tier cities may have a significant impact on the future land market.
Why has the implementation of Real Estate 'acquisition' been slow?
① "Although some places have announced the situation of storage, overall, the acquisition of stock land and commercial housing in various regions faces multiple difficulties, making the related implementation work not easy." ② Whether it is repurchasing idle land or acquiring existing commercial housing, there is a certain time interval from raising funds to completing the storage; how to ensure that funds can be effectively circulated within a certain period and achieve expected returns is also a factor that various regions have to consider.
Statistics Bureau: From January to November, national Real Estate Development investment decreased by 10.4% year-on-year.
Today, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that from January to November, national Real Estate Development investment was 9363.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; among which, Residence investment was 7119 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5%.
In many areas of fujian, mortgage rates have been adjusted to 3.1%. Experts say that ultra-low rates are unsustainable and banks are correcting their "involution-style" competition.
①In multiple cities in Fujian Province including Xiamen, Fuzhou, Putian, etc., the housing loan interest rate has been uniformly raised from 3.05% to 3.1%. ②The unclear lower limit of interest rates has caused internal price competition among banks, this adjustment is a correction to excessively low interest rates and does not mean policy tightening.
Will the first home loan interest rate in Qingdao be raised to 3.1%? Several local banks responded.
① Most bank branch staff have indicated that they have not yet received any notification about an increase; a few bank branch personnel, however, admitted that there is a possibility of an increase; ② The cost and revenue of mortgage lending need to be balanced, and some banks previously offered favorable interest rates that are generally at the extreme position of such a smooth line. Even if there are adjustments, mortgage rates remain at a relatively low level overall.
What "bottlenecks" are faced when repurchasing existing land? Real estate companies: price is one important factor.
The "stumbling block" issues that arise in revitalizing idle inventory land include the difficulty of reaching a consensus on the recycling price of the original plots between companies and the government. If the land is reclaimed at the current market price, the willingness of companies to participate is not high. There are many restrictions on the adjustment of land types, which involve the need to make additional land price payments; Analysts believe that the inventory idle land that can generate incremental value and achieve financial balance after being reclaimed, or the focus of current local government acquisitions.
Will the sales of the top 100 real estate companies drop month-on-month in November? Will there be a strong finish in December?
① November is the second complete calendar month after the "926" easing policy. Overall, real estate companies' sales have declined compared to October; ② "It is expected that real estate companies will maintain strong promotional efforts in December to boost performance, and sales in top 100 companies and core cities are likely to continue improving on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis."
Follow up on Guangzhou! First-tier cities all cancel the standard of ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, what is the market impact?
① With Guangzhou's official announcement today, all four first-tier cities have now canceled the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences. ② "For first-tier cities, after canceling the standards for ordinary residences and non-ordinary residences, it can significantly reduce the value-added tax costs in the second-hand housing trade process, lower transaction costs, and promote improving demand."
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights: The historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
Changsha's housing provident fund introduces new policies: the minimum down payment ratio for the first and second set of housing is 20%, and the maximum loan amount can be increased to four times.
①Employees' families purchasing their first or second improved self-occupied housing applying for housing provident fund loans, the minimum down payment ratio is uniformly adjusted to 20%; ②The maximum loan amount for high-level talents in categories A, B, C, and D purchasing their first self-occupied housing can be increased to four times the maximum loan amount in Changsha.
Among first-tier cities, shanghai was the first to cancel the standard for regular and non-regular residential properties, and it has comprehensively reduced the cost of housing trade taxes and fees.
① Shanghai is the first of the four first-tier cities to abolish the standards for ordinary and non-ordinary residential properties, and it is expected that the other three first-tier cities will also quickly eliminate the relevant standards. ② The latest policies in Shanghai will reduce personal income tax and housing transaction tax, making transaction costs more reasonable, while better meeting residents' replacement needs; these measures will enhance the confidence of market participants and are beneficial for further stabilizing market expectations.
From accounts payable to cash compensation, yuexiu property has consolidated funds totaling 13.5 billion yuan through three rounds of storage.
① Cash compensation exceeds 1.5 billion yuan, yuexiu property's land parcel is once again acquired. ② Yuexiu has had 3 land parcels acquired, with a total of 13.53 billion yuan in funds retrieved, and the compensation method changed from accounts payable to cash compensation.
This year, the cumulative issuance of real estate bonds decreased by 20% year-on-year, indicating a possible policy turning point.
Tail risk mitigation, configuration plate can seize the secondary securities selection opportunity.
First-time home loan interest rates in cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Suzhou have returned to the "3" level. The interest rate for provident fund loans may be even further reduced due to inversion.
Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou and other places have successively adjusted mortgage interest rates. Industry insiders believe that in the current stabilization trend of the real estate market, cities raising the lower limit of mortgage interest rates have a certain significance as an indicator.
The sales of the top 100 real estate companies in Silver October have turned the corner, with over 80% performance growth compared to the previous month.
①Affected by favorable policies and real estate developers' promotions, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies in October achieved a year-over-year positive growth for the first time this year. ②Among them, 83 real estate companies saw a month-on-month sales increase, with 33 more compared to September; 38 real estate companies experienced a year-on-year sales growth, with 22 more than in September.