Israel-Palestine Conflict
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IEA Monthly Report: Even if OPEC+ delays production increases, there will still be an oversupply of oil next year!
The IEA stated that if OPEC+ implements the production recovery plan starting in April, the Global market will face a surplus of 1.4 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 by 90,000 barrels to 1.1 million barrels, mainly due to the economic stimulus measures recently announced by China.
ING: Next year, the CSI Commodity Equity Index will experience a "Put year," while Gold will still shine!
① ING expects that the Global situation will put pressure on the Energy and CSI Commodity Equity Index markets, but the outlook for Gold remains bright. ② The report points out that Trump's tariff plans may disrupt the oil, Metal, and Agriculture markets; ③ However, ING predicts that the average Gold price will rise to $2,760 per ounce by 2025, primarily influenced by central bank purchases of Gold and the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset.
Will gold continue to shine next year? Goldman Sachs is listed as one of the “three major catalysts”: see you at $3,000!
① Goldman Sachs expects the price of gold to rise 11% to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025; ② Goldman Sachs believes that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased gold purchases by central banks, and rising geopolitical uncertainty are the three major factors driving the price of gold higher.
Bank of America's outlook for the bulk market in 2025: Tariffs cast a shadow over the global market, crude oil enters an oversupply cycle, with gold shining alone, soaring straight to $3,000.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects that due to a significant increase in production from non-OPEC countries, coupled with the possibility of OPEC+ releasing more supply, the crude oil market may enter a surplus cycle, with the average annual price of Brent crude oil expected to be $65 per barrel. Basic metals are experiencing price fluctuations amid differentiated supply and demand. Driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and risk aversion sentiment, gold remains one of the most attractive precious metals in 2025.
Trump's tariff plan angers many? US oil industry warns: rbob gasoline costs rise exacerbating consumer burden
① President-elect Trump of the usa threatens to impose a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada, causing concerns in the oil rbob gasoline industry; ② U.S. refineries highly rely on crude oil imports. The American Petroleum Institute warns that tariffs will raise refining costs and gasoline prices, exacerbating consumer burden; ③ Analysts believe the likelihood of Trump implementing the tariff plan is small.
French miners lament that the profitability of nickel mining business cannot be achieved without china technology and equipment.
① The multinational mining giant Ehmann stated that western companies cannot make a profit in the nickel mining business in Indonesia without relying on china's technology, equipment, and management experience; ② Ehmann and BASF have canceled the 2.6 billion dollar nickel-cobalt refining plant project in Indonesia due to it being 'economically unfeasible'; ③ Ehmann is collaborating with China’s Qingshan Holding to operate the nickel mine in Weda Bay, with the CEO stating that china's technology, expertise, and equipment are key to competitiveness.
Gold will continue to shine! Goldman Sachs: it will reach 3000 dollars next year, with global central banks being the 'main driver'.
① Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may reach $3,000 per ounce next year, as central banks around the world continue to buy gold in large quantities; ② the firm also believes that gold is the preferred trade for combating inflation and geopolitical issues in 2025.
The gold price has returned to $2700, and China Construction Bank continues to raise the entry threshold for individual gold rsp, conservative and cautious customers will no longer be able to invest in this product.
On the evening of November 22, China Construction Bank Corporation announced that starting from tomorrow, it will adjust the risk rating of the Easy Gold (physical gold rsp) product to 'medium risk.' Conservative and cautious customers will not be able to carry out the aforementioned 'Easy Gold' corresponding trades.
Spot gold briefly rose above the $2,700 mark as the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine highlighted the appeal of safe-haven assets.
① The spot gold price is expected to achieve the largest weekly increase in over a year this week, reaching a daily high of $2700.21 per ounce; ② The situation between Russia and Ukraine has become complicated, with Russia testing a "new type of medium-range hypersonic missile"; ③ Global central bank bids have driven gold prices to rise more than 30% since the beginning of the year.
Gold prices have regained upward momentum! Is there still upward potential in the market? How should gold retail brands respond? | Industry dynamics
① After six consecutive declines in spot gold prices, which created the largest weekly drop in three years, this week it regained its upward momentum; ② The listing prices of pure gold trinkets in most domestic brand gold stores are once again nearing 800 yuan per gram, and high gold prices have weakened consumer enthusiasm for purchasing gold; ③ Chow Tai Seng jewellery adopts a strategy to increase low average transaction price and emphasize strong design products; Chow Tai Fook has launched differentiated product series such as Chuanfu and the Palace Museum, which has boosted sales.
Gold will continue to shine! Commodity experts: Gold prices will hit new highs repeatedly in the first year of "Trump 2.0"!
①csi commodity equity index expert Jeffrey Christian expects the price of gold to reach a new historical high by the end of January next year, as significant uncertainty in the "Trump 2.0" policy will lead investors to flock to gold and other defensive assets for safety. ②He believes that the recent decline in gold prices may be due to some investors taking profits.
Gold sees a big pullback again. Those who bought etf can't sit still and are leaving. Can I still buy this dip?
① Gold has recently experienced a significant correction, and many investors are choosing to exit the market; ② As gold prices correct, the net value of many gold-related funds has also fallen; however, there are still 19 funds whose net value has risen over 20% this year; ③ Institutions believe that the long-term driving force for gold remains unchanged.
Gold Rebounds Amid USD Weakness And Geopolitical Uncertainties
Goldman Sachs directly suggests: buy gold! Next year, the price of gold will reach $3000.
①Goldman Sachs expects the target price of gold to reach $3000 per ounce by December 2025, due to increased central bank demand and the impact of interest rate cuts in the USA; ②Reports suggest that escalating trade tensions may revive speculative positions in gold; ③ Goldman Sachs has identified gold as the top choice for commodity trading in 2025, and indicates that the price of gold may continue to rise during Trump's term.
The most recent 13 US election windows have had the worst performance: Can gold still be bought?
① This month, usa's president-elect Trump won the election in a landslide, which immediately boosted the performance of markets from us stocks to bitcoin. ② However, among a series of pre-election highly praised Trump trades, gold has clearly become an exception...
How much gold has zijin mining group's guoge mine really been "plundered"? The issue of illegal mining may be difficult to resolve in the short term.
1. Over 3 tons of gold were robbed overseas, the 'suspicions' have not been completely clarified; 2. The illegal mining problem in the La Llanada gold mine in Colombia may be difficult to solve in the short term; 3. Nearly half of zijin mining group's assets are overseas, with a majority located in underdeveloped regions with weak political and economic stability.
IEA: Crude oil demand growth in 2024 may be halved, with a surplus of over one million barrels of crude oil expected every day next year.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects that this year, global oil consumption will increase by 0.92 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the growth rate in 2023. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. However, the IEA predicts that supply growth will continue, with production from countries such as the usa, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana increasing by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next.
Trump's victory resulted in a Waterloo for gold, with the spot gold price plummeting over $230 from its high.
① On Thursday morning in the European market, spot gold was quoted at $2,555.98 per ounce, having fallen over $230 since the historical high on October 31. ② Analysts state that the decline in gold prices is mainly due to a shift in risk appetite and a strengthening dollar after Trump's victory. Citigroup expects that the bullish market for precious metals may pause for a few weeks. ③ Observers remain bullish on the fundamentals of gold, believing that demand from central banks for gold will remain strong.
Over the past three years, with an increase of over 50%, the gold price has finally fallen. Is it a good time to buy? There is still support in the medium to long term, with a bullish view to $2900.
1. After Trump's election victory, the stimulating power of geopolitical risks on gold prices will decrease, coupled with the central bank's pause in gold purchases interrupting this round of gold price increase; 2. It is expected that gold prices will still fluctuate weakly this week; 3. Institutions believe the target price for gold is set at 2,900 USD/ounce, which means there is still an 11% increase potential.
If OPEC+ cancels the voluntary production cut plan, what will happen? Analysis: Oil prices may be halved next year.
1. The agreement of OPEC+ member countries to reduce daily production of 2.2 million barrels of crude oil has been postponed until the end of December; 2. Market observers state that if the organization does not reach a genuine agreement to control production in the future, oil prices may fall to $30 or $40 per barrel next year; 3. According to forecasts, the organization is more likely to gradually phase out production cuts early next year, rather than immediately withdrawing completely.