Government Bond ETFs
- 1053.927
- +1.325+0.13%
At the end of the month, there is still a gap in the amount of discounted bills. Under the price reduction by large banks, the 6-month national stock Silver bill interest rate has fallen below 1.2%.
① After the Spring Festival holiday, the sentiment for Bid in the note market among major Banks is relatively low, with many major Banks pressing prices to collect notes, and Volume is also on the decline. ② March, as the "big month for Crediting" for businesses, shows a trend of rising note interest rates again.
The U.S. Treasury Secretary wants the "natural decline of U.S. bond yields," and the market "understands it."
Traders are betting heavily on a further decline in U.S. Treasury yields. On just Tuesday, approximately 60 million dollars was wagered that the 10-year Treasury yield will drop below 4.15%. If the yield further falls to 4%, this position will profit approximately 40 million dollars.
The bond market has undergone significant adjustments, facing redemption pressure, with the Fund experiencing nearly 20 billion in net Sell for several consecutive days.
① The increasing pressure for redemption in the bond market is mainly due to the expectations of cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates not materializing. ② From February 17 to 24, the Fund experienced six consecutive days of net Sell, with a total net Sell of 19.53 billion yuan. ③ How to operate in the future market?
Musk's DOGE is booming and cutting costs, but the bond market is simply not buying it...
Although the DOGE team claims to have achieved a reduction in spending of 55 billion dollars, this figure represents an extremely small proportion of the annual budget, far from sufficient to affect the 1.8 trillion dollar budget deficit. Since Trump's administration began, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has fluctuated between 4.4% and 4.7%, higher than the approximately 4.3% just before he was elected.
"The era of the Wealthy Economy"? The top 10% of the population in the USA accounts for 49.7% of total national consumption, reaching a historic high!
The USA economy is increasingly dependent on the Consumer spending of high-income groups. Economist Mark Zandi estimates that the consumption of just the top 10% of high-income individuals contributes nearly one-third of the USA's GDP. However, some analyses point out that if a decline in the stock market or housing prices affects the confidence of high-income groups, resulting in reduced spending, it will have a significant impact on the overall economy.
Where is the "anchor point" for interest rates amid the correction in government bond Futures?
Guotou Securities believes that the Range of 1.80%-1.94% is a key observation point. If interest rates do not significantly break through this Range, it can be seen as a correction of the previous "overheating"; once it breaks through, caution is needed regarding changes in the market's mid-term expectations for the fundamentals.
The Federal Reserve is trapped in Trump's policies.
On one hand, Federal Reserve officials frequently indicate that the MMF policy is in a "good position" to address various upside or downside risks; on the other hand, in the face of the normalization of "uncertainty", including the volatility brought by the aggressive trade and economic agenda of the Trump administration, as well as Other factors that may impact policy, the Federal Reserve must maintain a cautious and Neutral stance.
Rumors about the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" are circulating on Wall Street, with the most extreme speculation including the possibility of defaulting on U.S. debt.
① Jim Bianco raised a question: "Is it possible that Trump could force some of the USA's overseas creditors to exchange their held USA Bonds for ultra-long-term bonds to alleviate the USA's debt burden?" ② Although this scenario may not occur, he pointed out that Trump is likely to disrupt the entire Global financial order in the next four years, and Wall Street needs to be prepared for this.
The 30-year government bond Futures have fallen for three consecutive days, raising the question: Has the bond market adjusted sufficiently? Should short-term Funds that have turned to losses this year be redeemed?
① The bond market has been hit hard, with 30-year Treasury Futures falling for three consecutive days; ② More than 220 short bonds have already turned negative in ROI this year; ③ What are the reasons for the significant drop? Should redemption be considered?
The dilemma of the "egg collector" has arrived, as the 30-year Treasury Bond ETF continues to decline. What should investors pay attention to?
1. The 30-year Treasury Bond ETFs managed by Pengyang and Bosera have seen a drawdown of 1.84% and 1.49% respectively since February 7, while some short-term bond products have also performed rather mediocre recently. 2. There is still considerable capital choosing to increase positions during the volatile market, with the two 30-year Treasury Bond ETFs having grown over 2.4 billion yuan in scale since February 7. 3. Factors such as the interconnection of monetary easing and government bond supply rhythm may temporarily disrupt the bond market.
The top three holders of U.S. debt had a decline in Hold Positions in December, with net Inflow from all foreign capital exceeding 87 billion dollars.
In December, Japan's holdings of US Treasuries decreased by 27.3 billion USD, down to 1.0598 trillion USD. In December, China's mainland holdings of US Treasuries decreased by 9.6 billion USD, down to 759 billion USD. The United Kingdom's monthly US Treasury holdings reduced by 44.1 billion USD. The US Treasury Department reported that in December, the total net inflow of foreign capital, including long-term securities, US short-term securities, and bank inflow, was 87.1 billion USD.
Banks are still "lacking liabilities," with this week's funding needs possibly reaching 4 trillion, and the yield curve of interbank certificates of deposit is inverted.
① This week's funding needs include MLF maturities of 500 billion yuan, reverse repos with a maturity of 800 billion yuan, reverse repo maturities of 1,044.3 billion yuan, net payment scale of government Bonds at 500 billion yuan, and tax period outflows potentially exceeding one trillion. ② Against the backdrop of high short-term funding costs, Institutions, especially non-banking ones, may have a weaker willingness to participate in short-term certificates of deposit, and directly lending out funds may be a better choice.
USA CPI hits record high, does the Global market gain from misfortune? Bank of America Hartnett: Trump's "soft spot" has been exposed.
Analyst Michael Hartnett pointed out that inflation in the USA is surging, indicating that in the coming months, Trump must "play small" on tariffs and immigration issues instead of making "big moves" to avoid triggering a second wave of inflation.
The U.S. government deficit is flashing red again! The deficit for the first four months of the fiscal year reached 84 billion dollars, setting a record and exceeding the peak period of the pandemic.
As of January this year, in the first four months of the 2025 fiscal year, the USA federal government's budget deficit expanded by 58% year-on-year, with government revenue and expenditure both reaching record highs for the period, increasing by 1% and 15% year-on-year, respectively. In the first four months, government interest costs amounted to 392 billion dollars, accounting for 16% of total expenditure; the budget deficit for January reached 129 billion dollars, the second highest level after January during the COVID-19 pandemic. In January, government expenditure increased by 29% year-on-year, while revenue grew by 7.5%.
Express News | US Jan. Core CPI YoY 3.3% vs 3.1% Forecast, Prior 3.2%
US Morning News Call | Powell Cautious on Rates; DoorDash Soars on Outlook
On the eve of the USA CPI release, traders are betting heavily on rising US Treasury yields.
The market currently expects the CPI data to be announced this Wednesday at 3.1%, slightly lower than the previous value, but still above the Federal Reserve's target range. Analysis suggests that this may further increase the upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and weaken market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
The pressure of the debt ceiling is significant, and the U.S. Treasury Department has begun to reduce the issuance scale of short-term debts.
The scale of the four and eight period Treasury bonds that the USA Treasury plans to issue this week has been reduced by 5 billion dollars compared to before, marking the first reduction in issuance scale since the end of last year. The issuance scale of the 17 period Treasury bonds has also declined for the first time, decreased by 2 billion dollars compared to before. The Treasury stated last week that the debt ceiling would lead to larger fluctuations in the issuance volume of short-term bonds than usual.
It's all in chaos! The "strange" divergence in inflation expectations in the USA...
① Just as Trump is heading to Capitol Hill this week to testify, and before the highly anticipated January CPI release, Wall Street's focus on the upcoming inflation trends in the USA seems to be gradually reaching a peak... ② This largely stems from two of the most significant inflation expectation Indicators in the industry — the related surveys from the University of Michigan and the New York Federal Reserve, which have shown a historically rare divergence in the past two Trading days!
Focusing on Trump's latest remarks! The Asia-Pacific stock markets opened lower collectively, and Gold continued at a high level.
According to reports, President Trump of the USA stated that he will announce "reciprocal tariffs" against other countries this week, and on Monday announced a 25% tariff on Steel and Aluminum imports from all countries. The Nikkei 225 Index opened down 0.2%, the South Korea Seoul Composite Index opened down 0.4%, and the Australian S&P 200 Index fell 0.5%.