In October, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds hit their lowest level in over 15 years! Is the trend of reducing US Treasury bonds beginning to spread Global?

① On Thursday local time, the USA Treasury released the International Capital Flow Report (TIC) for October 2024; ② The report showed that the amount of US Treasury bonds held by foreign investors ended five consecutive months of growth in October; ③ Led by Japan and China, as many as seven of the top ten "creditors" of the USA chose to reduce their Shareholding that month. Meanwhile, China's US Treasury Hold Positions further hit a new low since 2009.

cls.cnDec 19 21:17 ET

The central bank's discussions with some "aggressive trading" Institutions have shaken the market; who are the Block Orders in this round of bond bull market? State-owned large banks have received the most "attention".

① The central bank's morning consultations mainly involved Institutions based in Beijing, with very few Institutions from other cities attending the meeting, including cities like Shanghai where asset management Institutions are concentrated. ② In the past two weeks, the Block Buy Institutions for 10-year government bonds have shifted from Fund to Banks. ③ As incremental policies come into effect, the likelihood of economic stabilization increases, necessitating a reduction in expectations for the bond market in 2025.

cls.cnDec 18 08:24 ET

Is the market too conservative? Bond traders expect the Fed to cut rates four times in 2025.

In terms of interest rate Options, some traders bet that the market's view is too hawkish, and the Federal Reserve will be closer to its September forecast: four rate cuts in 2025, each by 25 basis points, which would bring the implied federal funds target rate down to 3.375%. Some analysts believe that if Powell adopts a hawkish tone during the press conference, the rise in Bonds yields may be disrupted.

wallstreetcnDec 18 08:02 ET

After breaking three barriers, the 10-year government bond hovers around the 1.7% integer mark, and multiple Institutions have begun to issue "warnings": the downward space is limited.

① On one hand, previous Trades have fully realized expectations such as interest rate cuts, and on the other hand, the market mostly anticipates that 1.7% is the latest intervention threshold by the regulators. ② At the end of the year, with the recovery of the economic fundamentals, some Institutions have changed their expectations for a strong ramp-up of stimulus policies in the short term. ③ A further significant decline in interest rates may require the new expectations for a round of MMF easing after the interest rate cuts are implemented.

cls.cnDec 17 04:16 ET

FOMC Likely to Cut Rates by 25bps

Moomoo News GlobalDec 16 07:34 ET

The bond market is experiencing a "super week," with the 30-year Treasury Bond ETF rising more than 20% this year, and institutions state that volatility may continue after the New Year.

① The bond market experienced a "super week" of policy and trade; ② The 30-year Treasury Bond ETF saw an increase of over 3% in a single week, with an annual ROI of 20%; ③ Institutions do not have strong profit-taking motivation in the short term, and volatility may occur after the New Year.

cls.cnDec 15 22:15 ET