Trump's "abandonment of protection" for Europe completely ignites Global Defense stocks!
Since the beginning of this year, Germany's Rheinmetall has become the best performing stock in the MSCI World Index, while South Korea's largest defense group, Hanwha Aerospace's subsidiary Hanwha Ocean, has seen its stock price soar over 100%, leading its Asian peers. This wave of sharp gains has significantly elevated valuations, with Hanwha Ocean's current expected PE ratio at 52 times.
Important data released during the Two Sessions: the budget deficit rate is planned to be set at 4%, with an additional government debt of 11.86 trillion this year, and the bond market has performed relatively strongly.
① This year, the total new government debt reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, with a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity. ② Government bond Futures opened higher, the 30-year Block Orders rose by 0.27%, the 10-year Block Orders rose by 0.14%, the 5-year Block Orders rose by 0.09%, and the 2-year Block Orders rose by 0.04%.
The Global market reassesses the narrative of "American exceptionalism"; Morgan Stanley: US bonds are the biggest beneficiaries.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has lost the support of growth expectations. Since September 2024, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to decline amid market volatility and are now close to the 200-day moving average. Further declines in U.S. Treasury yields require a "dovish" shift in Federal Reserve policy, and the current market pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy rate has shown a distinct downward trend.
The highest adjustment is a reduction of 50 basis points! Several small and medium-sized Banks have continuously lowered deposit interest rates in the first quarter, and it has become a "hard truth" to reduce the cost of liabilities while maintaining inte
① The first quarter is a key stage for the repricing of Bank loans, and it is expected that Bank interest margins will continue to decline. ② It is anticipated that the reduction in the cost of liabilities for listed Banks throughout 2025 is likely to exceed the level for the entire year of 2024. ③ Many Banks are trying to widen non-interest income, and even expand their Business overseas, but the effects are not as pronounced as reducing the cost of liabilities.
Dalio warns: U.S. debt may face a catastrophic disaster within three years, and the Trump administration must commit to reducing the deficit.
① Dalio warns the USA Trump administration that without an immediate commitment to reduce the deficit, a significant debt crisis risk will arise within three years; ② Dalio believes that Bitcoin may be one of the stable supply alternative currencies and suggests allocating 10%-15% of Gold in the investment portfolio for diversification.
Goldman Sachs: Monday will be a painful day for the bears, the surge in digital currencies is just the beginning.
Recently, after a large-scale short selling by hedge funds, the market momentum Indicators have dropped to their lowest level in a decade, which is often a precursor to a reversal. Goldman Sachs indicates that the market will seek the maximum "pain point," chasing Beta and squeezing the short positions in U.S. stocks. Unless there is concrete evidence indicating that the trend in U.S. stocks is about to reverse, the short squeeze trend will continue to dominate the market.