The interest rates of the same industry certificates of deposit are rapidly declining, and under "moderately loose" conditions, there is hope to drop to 1.30%.
1. After the improvement in MMF transmission efficiency, the CD interest rate and the 7-day OMO rate will integrate within the next year. 2. Due to the faster decline of long-term bonds, the spread between the 10Y government bond and the 1Y CD has been compressing, and is currently at 13BP.
Bonds are referred to as the "God of War" in the market, with the 30-year government bond yield breaking "2" during trading, accelerating at the end of the year.
① Although the Fund made several profit-taking operations on government bonds earlier this week, there is still a net Buy of long-term government bonds overall, and Insurance Institutions also joined in the rush to buy bonds. ② The extent of monetary easing determines the upward potential of the bond market; as long as interest rate cuts are on the way, the bond market can remain optimistic. There may be a reserve requirement ratio cut before the end of the year.
The Nasdaq fell to 0.02 million points, Adobe plummeted more than 13%, the China concept Index rose against the trend, and Bitcoin dropped below 0.1 million dollars.
In November, USA PPI inflation exceeded expectations, with the market betting on a pause in interest rate cuts in January next year. The Dow has fallen for six consecutive days, with NVIDIA experiencing the largest drop of 2.5%. Tesla, Meta, Google, and Amazon have moved away from their highs, uranium mining stocks have declined, but Apple reached a new high. Broadcom rose nearly 5% in after-hours trading, and Chinese stocks Baidu and PDD Holdings increased by over 1%. Bond yields in Europe and the USA have risen significantly, and after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, the euro fell to a one-week low, before rebounding. The dollar reached a two-week high, while the offshore yuan once rose over 200 points, breaking through 7.26 yuan. Commodities generally fell, with spot gold down over 2% and spot silver down over 4% during the session.
The Nasdaq hits 20,000 points! Besides US bonds, US investors are buying everything.
After the release of USA's November CPI data on Wednesday, investors seem to have finally "confirmed" that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut next week is a done deal; financial markets across asset classes on Wednesday also appeared quite uplifting; apart from the decline in USA Treasuries, investors are buying everything else - USA stocks are rising, Gold is rising, the dollar is rising, Crude Oil Product is rising, and Cryptos are rising...
Wall Street interprets the CPI: no change to the Fed's "gradual easing," core inflation remains strong supporting the pause in interest rate cuts in January.
Analysis suggests that the CPI, which meets expectations, demonstrates that the cooling of inflation has basically stagnated in recent months. While this is not enough to disrupt the year-end bull market in U.S. stocks, it also means that an interest rate cut next week is not guaranteed, especially with the potential inflation upward risks brought by Trump's tariffs and fiscal expansion next year drawing attention. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries first fell and then rose.
Here's the Breakdown for November CPI, in One Chart