Top ten macro events globally in 2024: The US and Japan central banks both pivot, China's Assets explode, and epic surge of Gold and Bitcoin.
This year, major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have all entered a path of easing, while the Bank of Japan announced the end of the negative interest rate era. The narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the USA briefly spurred a reversal in yen carry trades. Chinese assets have strongly rebounded under the boost of policy 'combinations'. The US elections have driven the 'Trump trade' to become popular, with Bitcoin and Gold, the two major assets, dominating in chaotic times.
Last night, china assets went "crazy."
Overnight, the nasdaq Golden Dragon china index rose over 8.5%, marking the best single-day performance since the end of September. Popular Chinese concept etfs surged collectively: the largest MCHI increased by 7.7%, the FXI, which tracks large Chinese companies in the Hong Kong stock market, rose over 8%, and the only major Chinese concept etf tracking the A-share market, ASHR, gained nearly 7%. The most insane increase came from the three times leveraged FTSE China, YINN, which soared 24% overnight and continued to rise over 2% after hours.
Are Wall Street traders starting to layout A-shares? Unusual bullish bid in the options market for two consecutive days.
① On Monday, over 0.2 million call options for Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (CHAU) were bought; ② The options trading volume of this etf is usually quite low, with daily transactions often only in the hundreds to thousands. Therefore, the sudden emergence of 0.2 million single-day options large trades is extremely rare.
China has taken the lead! Wall Street strategists: the next "Trump trade" may be outside of the USA.
①When looking to the future, Jay Pelosky, the founder and global strategist of the New York investment consulting firm TPW Advisory, has insights that differ from many mainstream market views; ②He believes that Trump's victory might ultimately serve as an important catalyst - driving the usa market to end its long-standing excellent performance.
Goldman Sachs A-shares 2025 Heavyweight Strategy Outlook: Domestic funds will grasp pricing power! Overweight A-shares before H, industry focus on consumer stocks!
Goldman Sachs believes that compared to Hong Kong stocks, A-shares are more sensitive to policy easing and personal investment capital flows. The first quarter of next year will be a better time to allocate to Hong Kong stocks. In terms of sectors, analysts recommend that investors pay attention to themes such as consumer, emerging markets exporters, specific new technologies, and shareholder return strategies.
"Smart money" is betting on china becoming a trend: In Q3, the prototype of the "big short" increased shareholding in Alibaba and other Chinese concepts, while the rising fund Keystone established positions in three major etfs.
In the third quarter, the fund under Michael Burry increased its shareholding in Alibaba by 0.045 million shares to nearly 0.2 million shares, doubled its hold positions in jd.com to 0.5 million shares, and increased its shareholding in baidu by 0.05 million shares to 0.125 million shares. At the end of the quarter, it held three Chinese concept stocks valued at 54 million dollars, accounting for 65% of the total fund's stock holdings. Meanwhile, the fund bought corresponding put options for these three Chinese concept stocks to hedge risks.