Express News | BOJ Increases Short-Term Interest Rate Target to 0.5% (Est. 0.5%), Highest Level in 17 Years. Following the Decision, Nikkei 225 Up 0.6%, USDindex Down 0.2%.
Defense spending is increasing, and Japan's total budget for 2025 will reach a record 115 trillion yen.
In the new budget proposal, the spending items with the largest increase include: a significant increase of over 10% in defense spending, reaching 8.5 trillion yen; and an approximately 7% increase in allocations to local governments. Due to record high tax revenues, the scale of newly issued government bonds will decrease by nearly one-fifth, down to 28.6 trillion yen.
Capital outflows intensify, the yen devalues "Alexander".
The data shows that japan's current account surplus in the third quarter was 8.97 trillion yen (about 57.5 billion dollars), but this figure was offset by the direct investment and securities investment outflows, limiting the potential increase in the yen.
Analysts warn of the risk of Japan raising interest rates: August "Black Monday" is just a preview of a bigger disaster.
①Arif Husain, the head of the fixed income department at Puxin, warns that the "Black Monday" in August is just the initial stage of this disaster and there will be more market fluctuations in the future; ②He believes that the tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and its impact on global capital flows are not simple, and it will have a huge impact in the coming years.
In last week's market crash, this hedge fund made a profit of $0.27 billion.
Hedge fund Caxton Associates bet on US Treasury bonds and the Japanese yen, becoming one of the big winners in the market turbulence in early August.
Just now, the Bank of Japan surrendered by "dovish" policy.
Under strong selling pressure, the Bank of Japan has turned dovish again, and arbitrage trading has resumed, and the yen may return to the situation of being heavily shorted. Some commentaries predict that malignant inflation will return as the Bank of Japan continues to maintain a cautious stance, and the yen exchange rate will hit new lows in the "near future".