A-Shares ETF
- 957.077
- -7.736-0.80%
Top ten macro events globally in 2024: The US and Japan central banks both pivot, China's Assets explode, and epic surge of Gold and Bitcoin.
This year, major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have all entered a path of easing, while the Bank of Japan announced the end of the negative interest rate era. The narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and the USA briefly spurred a reversal in yen carry trades. Chinese assets have strongly rebounded under the boost of policy 'combinations'. The US elections have driven the 'Trump trade' to become popular, with Bitcoin and Gold, the two major assets, dominating in chaotic times.
Here's the Breakdown for November CPI, in One Chart
Last night, china assets went "crazy."
Overnight, the nasdaq Golden Dragon china index rose over 8.5%, marking the best single-day performance since the end of September. Popular Chinese concept etfs surged collectively: the largest MCHI increased by 7.7%, the FXI, which tracks large Chinese companies in the Hong Kong stock market, rose over 8%, and the only major Chinese concept etf tracking the A-share market, ASHR, gained nearly 7%. The most insane increase came from the three times leveraged FTSE China, YINN, which soared 24% overnight and continued to rise over 2% after hours.
Are Wall Street traders starting to layout A-shares? Unusual bullish bid in the options market for two consecutive days.
① On Monday, over 0.2 million call options for Direxion Daily CSI 300 China A Share Bull 2X Shares (CHAU) were bought; ② The options trading volume of this etf is usually quite low, with daily transactions often only in the hundreds to thousands. Therefore, the sudden emergence of 0.2 million single-day options large trades is extremely rare.
Brokerage morning meeting highlights: continue to be bullish on the Chinese stock market with a "confidence reassessment bull market."
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. suggested continuing to be bullish on the Chinese stock market in the medium term with a 'confidence revaluation bull'; Galaxy Securities stated that top real estate companies are showing excellent operational management capabilities and have financial advantages, with the potential to further increase their market share; Citic Sec believes that the fiberglass industry is currently at a great opportunity allocation point.
China has taken the lead! Wall Street strategists: the next "Trump trade" may be outside of the USA.
①When looking to the future, Jay Pelosky, the founder and global strategist of the New York investment consulting firm TPW Advisory, has insights that differ from many mainstream market views; ②He believes that Trump's victory might ultimately serve as an important catalyst - driving the usa market to end its long-standing excellent performance.
Goldman Sachs A-shares 2025 Heavyweight Strategy Outlook: Domestic funds will grasp pricing power! Overweight A-shares before H, industry focus on consumer stocks!
Goldman Sachs believes that compared to Hong Kong stocks, A-shares are more sensitive to policy easing and personal investment capital flows. The first quarter of next year will be a better time to allocate to Hong Kong stocks. In terms of sectors, analysts recommend that investors pay attention to themes such as consumer, emerging markets exporters, specific new technologies, and shareholder return strategies.
"Smart money" is betting on china becoming a trend: In Q3, the prototype of the "big short" increased shareholding in Alibaba and other Chinese concepts, while the rising fund Keystone established positions in three major etfs.
In the third quarter, the fund under Michael Burry increased its shareholding in Alibaba by 0.045 million shares to nearly 0.2 million shares, doubled its hold positions in jd.com to 0.5 million shares, and increased its shareholding in baidu by 0.05 million shares to 0.125 million shares. At the end of the quarter, it held three Chinese concept stocks valued at 54 million dollars, accounting for 65% of the total fund's stock holdings. Meanwhile, the fund bought corresponding put options for these three Chinese concept stocks to hedge risks.
Goldman Sachs firmly calls for the rise of Chinese stocks: expected to rise within 2-3 months after the US election!
①Goldman Sachs strategists' latest forecast predicts that Chinese stocks will rise within two to three months after the US presidential election; ②The firm believes that China's economic stimulus measures have created the so-called "policy put options" to protect investors in the Chinese stock market from the impact of declines.
USA election enters countdown, these markets have become "safe havens"
①In the final stage of the usa election, investors are selling the yen in droves and instead investing in cash, india, china markets, and some assets denominated in Singapore dollars; ②Pictet Asset Management said: "We actually think china is a good place to hide."
The central bank has once again introduced a new liquidity management tool, suitable for the habits of overseas investors, which can better hedge the concentrated maturity of MLF by the end of the year.
1. This is also a new tool launched by the central bank after temporary reverse repurchase and bond trading since the beginning of this year; 2. The term of buy-back repurchase does not exceed 1 year, which can further enrich the liquidity management tools and better hedge the concentrated maturity of MLF before the end of the year; 3. Overseas investors are more accustomed to the buy-back repurchase commonly used internationally.
Daiwa: PBOC's new policies implemented, A-share sentiment index significantly increased within a week.
The morgan stanley MSASI indicator measuring A-share investor sentiment rose 23 percentage points to 105% as of October 16. Morgan Stanley believes that the current market valuation already includes a considerable amount of optimism, expecting high volatility in the short term, and recommending focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and companies with good earnings certainty.
Short selling has retreated significantly, with the short selling activity in the Hong Kong stock market hitting its lowest level since 2021.
Billy Leung, Global X ETFs investment strategist, stated that the risk-return ratio of mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets is currently biased towards the upside. "This means that the risk of short selling is higher now, so short positions should be reduced."
Bank of America strategist: Chinese stocks should be able to continue to rise, recommending a call options strategy.
①A strategist at Bank of America options believes that Chinese stocks should have further upside potential; ②This strategist correctly predicted the rise of Chinese stocks before.
Chen Guo: The bull market is still on the way, investors in this round are enthusiastic but lack confidence.
The recent market high is just a peak of emotions, not a peak of economic confidence, much less a peak of profit fundamentals.
AMD Bears Fan Unusual Option Trades Even as Stock Rebounds From Biggest Slump in a Month
Wall Street veteran: A-shares will rise another 50%, hedge funds that sold off this week will regret it.
Jeff deGraaf, from Renaissance Macro Research, stated that the market and policies are driving forces in both directions. China has introduced a series of supportive measures for the capital markets, which is not just a coincidence. The current Chinese policies towards the market are similar to the 'Draghi Moment' during the Eurozone crisis period.
Where to go after the short-term market earthquake? The direction of big finance and technology may still be the focus.
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Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant pullback, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 12.82%. Industry insiders interpret it this way.
On October 8, the Hang Seng Index fell by 9.41%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index plummeted by 12.82% in a single day. Brokerage analysts stated that the main reason for the decline was the resumption of work in the A-share market, the primary battleground recovery, combined with relatively empty content from the National Development and Reform Commission meeting, which fell below the market's expectations of continued bullish signals being released, leading to foreign capital not seeing clear signs of fiscal stimuli.
Goldman Sachs released three heavyweight research reports over the weekend: downgrading the forecast for US recession, expecting the Chinese stock market to rise by another 15% to 20%.
Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team believes that the US large cap stocks can rise by another 4.3% to 6000 points by the end of the year, as the possibility of a US recession has decreased, allowing the Federal Reserve to only reduce interest rates by 25 basis points each time. Their AP strategic team has upgraded the rating of Chinese stocks to "shareholding" and is bullish on the potential boost to valuation from large-scale stimulus measures.