Goldman Sachs: The effective tax rate in the USA may soar to its highest level in decades this year, Bullish on China's A-shares and Listed in Hong Kong.
①Goldman Sachs expects that the effective tax rate in the USA will rise by an average of 10 percentage points this year, the highest level in decades, which could lower the GDP growth forecast for the USA in 2025 to 1.7%; ②Goldman Sachs is Bullish on European stocks and China's A-shares and Listed in Hong Kong, expecting that the European stock market will continue to outperform Large Cap, and has raised the earnings per share growth forecast for Europe.
Investing heavily in China occupies an important position! Bank of America’s main strategy for 2025: "BIG".
Recently, a wave of asset allocation characterized by "the East rising and the West falling" has been triggered in the Global market; many people in Wall Street institutions have expressed their views on the current decline of the US stock market, as well as the increasing popularity of US Treasury bonds, Gold, and Central European Assets; Michael Hartnett, the Chief Analyst of Bank of America, who was once dubbed the "most accurate Analyst on Wall Street," recently shared his perspective.
Goldman Sachs' five macro scenario simulations: Is the current situation most favorable for Chinese Stocks?
Top trader Lindsay Matcham at Goldman Sachs believes that three factors should be considered when deciding on stock themes: 1. Will economic growth slow down or accelerate? 2. Will inflation data rise or fall? 3. Will global central banks ease or tighten?
Goldman Sachs: AI could bring a net Buy of 200 billion dollars to the Chinese stock market.
Goldman Sachs stated that widespread AI adoption could increase the EPS of Chinese enterprises by 2.5% annually over the next decade. Improved growth prospects and increased confidence may raise the fair valuation of the Chinese stock market by 15-20%, potentially bringing in over 200 billion USD in inflow (with 104 billion USD contributed by southbound capital), which is expected to partially reverse the underallocation status of Global Asset Management Institutions.
Wall Street is "looking ahead": China's Assets have shifted from "tradable" to "investable".
According to Bank of America, DeepSeek may become an important turning point similar to Alibaba's IPO in 2014, prompting global investors to reassess the value of Chinese Assets, likely stimulating a cluster effect of XINJINGJI enterprises, forming widespread optimism for economic growth, employment, and income, thereby attracting global long-term capital back to the Chinese market.
DeepSeek has changed everything! Goldman Sachs has proposed a new framework for investing in the Chinese stock market.
First, Goldman Sachs divides the total market value of 14 trillion dollars of China Stocks into two main categories: AI Technology and non-Technology. Second, within the AI Technology sector, the 6 trillion dollars in market value is further subdivided into Semiconductors (including Software design), Infrastructure (Hardware, Data Storage, Cooling System), Data and Cloud (such as Internet platform companies), and Software and Applications (self-driving, Biotechnology, humanoid Robots, Internet service providers, etc.). Third, in the non-Technology sector, the 7 trillion dollars in market value is classified into income enhancers and productivity enhancers. Finally, Goldman Sachs ranks various sub-industries and thematic groups according to their relative price sensitivity to NVIDIA and META, allowing for a better understanding of China's Industry and the level of Trade of AI agents in the two dominant trends in the Technology world - capital expenditure and application.
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