Preparing for "Trump 2.0"? Hedge funds are increasing their Call on oil prices.
Bull positions in Crude Oil have increased by 41% over the past three weeks, with net long positions reaching the highest level since August of last year. For traders more focused on fundamentals, Trump's tough stance on Iran has made them reluctant to short; Trump's potential tariff policies raise inflation concerns, which has also prompted traders to hedge risks by going long on oil.
It's once again the annual mortgage repricing day, and Banks personnel candidly state that "revenue pressure is increasing." How to stabilize the interest margin under the expectation of interest rate cuts?
① With the arrival of the repricing cycle on January 1st, many industry professionals who spoke with reporters from the Financial Association stated that "revenue pressure is increasing." ② Looking ahead to 2025, many experts believe that the policy interest rates need to be further lowered during the year, and mortgage rates will continue to decline. ③ From the perspective of the Industry, controlling costs remains the primary measure each bank is taking to ease the downward pressure on interest margins.
At the end of 2024, the top 100 real estate companies will see a rebound in sales, with the number of companies exceeding one billion reduced to 11.
By the end of 2024, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies will show a tail end market trend; the number of billion-yuan and hundred-million-yuan real estate companies continues to decrease, with the number of billion-yuan companies further reduced to 11 in 2024, returning to the level of 2016.
On the first trading day of the New Year, Bank stocks opened high and then fell back. Many Institutions: the opening performance may be better than in previous years, but the trend of declining net interest margin remains unchanged.
① The crediting ratio between each quarter is expected to recover to a ratio of 4:3:2:1. ② It is expected that policy trends will continue, gradually boosting demand in the Real Estate sector. ③ This year, the decline in net interest margin for Banks is narrower compared to 2024, with a calculated interest margin of 1.34% under neutral assumptions.
High-dividend Coal Industrial Concept(coal Industry) stocks will be the "stable happiness" in 2024. The trend of Thermal Coal next year may fluctuate in a narrow range | 2025 outlook.
① The Coal Sector is expected to perform brilliantly in 2024, humorously referred to as the "most profitable track in A-shares"; ② Industry insiders anticipate that Thermal Coal prices will fluctuate within the Range next year.
The Electric Vehicle Hundred People Meeting released the top ten trends in the automotive industry for 2025: Solid State Battery accelerates mass production and AI technology brings new transformations.
① Trend One: The increment market for Autos is entering a stage dominated by electricity, with an estimated 16.5 million New energy Fund vehicles sold in 2025; ② Trend Two: Plug-in hybrids and range-extended technologies are integrating advanced electric and RBOB Gasoline technologies, becoming an important force in New energy Fund increases; ③ Trend Three: New energy Fund Commercial Vehicles are entering a rapid growth phase, with the penetration rate of heavy trucks expected to exceed 20%;