• 2025新起点 : so nvda is at its peak now?

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• Junius Falcon : Did faster CPUs make us need fewer computers nowadays ? In fact the semiconductor industry and its market are thriving on it.
  Having 1 computer is no longer a privilege. I can have 2 PC and a phone today.
  Lower cost will open markets, vehicles, robots, professional task processing, etc. NVDA already making local chipset and computing power for those applications

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• 10baggerbamm OP 2025新起点 : if you set aside the lie that was told on what the cost of development was for deep seek, and you look what they were able to achieve with what is an old outdated antiquated GPU.. and you overlook the fact that they might have 100,000 of these gpus or 60,000 of these gpus.. will never know because they're not opening up their business to cameras to show everybody what they've done it's not like Elon Musk when you see what he creates the videos are out there on x.
  tell all this aside what they've done is make life for consumer the average person better because prices are going to come down that much faster adoption is going to increase significantly and look what perplexities offered they were not doing any deep seek embedded search and now they are so to remain competitive they've embedded deep seek into perplexity and they've scrubbed out all of the Chinese search agents so nothing that you search on deep seak gets back to China.
  the concern for NVIDIA is going to be the restrictions that President Trump places on them the tariffs that will be imposed.
  obviously saying that President Trump is smart enough not to screw investors that he put in front of the cameras like Larry Ellison and Masa who are going to be collectively as a group investing 500 plus billion dollars over the next 4 years to build data centers.
  would you be just plain stupid to put a tariff on Nvidia gpus that are manufactured by Taiwan semiconductor to sell to these group of people in the United States that are investing $500 billion dollars
  have to believe that when Jensen met with President Trump he was smart enough to say hey look these people were the ones making it happen Nvidia so penalizing us making us pay a tariff is just going to make these people pay more money because we're not going to absorb it we're going to pass the costs on so maybe it would be smart to make an exception to Nvidia and any other company for that matter that utilizes Taiwan Semi or another country to manufacture gpus because Intel is not going to build a Fab facility in the next three years to produce what we need now and The foundry that Taiwan Sammy is building in Arizona can't even produce a fraction of our gpus that we need everything that we need is being produced the main factory at Taiwan semiconductor and our sophistication requires them to push the envelope for testing because we are so far ahead of everything else that they are doing nobody else can do this in the world.
  I've got to believe President Trump is going to issue exceptions to these tariffs I can't believe that he would penalize people that want to invest in America and make them pay more money because the only place that Nvidia can get production done is in Taiwan. logistically it's impossible in the next several years to build a Fab facility to handle Nvidia needs in the United States let alone all the other companies that produce chips and gpus in the United States that are getting penalized.
  so for me that's a big problem right now that needs to be addressed and maybe that will come out in the conference call when Nvidia releases their quarter maybe it won't maybe president Trump is going to be the one to say that we're going to issue exceptions to the companies that are help building these data centers because we want to support the ingenuity and the growth we don't want to penalize them.
  so no one's talking about this online no one's talking about this on TV and none of the bobbleheads
  no one's talking about this on x
  this issue is extremely important to Nvidia
  the other concern I have for NVIDIA and you can go back and listen to the conference call listen to Amazon when they were talking about AWS they said we are extremely excited to be receiving our Blackwell gpus from Nvidia we are the first in line.
  that to me means they haven't shipped
  what has been sent out because Jensen said they are in full production and their shipping it's but a fraction
  I've read online several analysts that are very smart that do manage money for themselves and for clients and they're making a very nonchalant approach to this response when I asked them this the gist of what they said well what does it matter if it comes in q1 or Q4 because the revenues will come in
  and my response to them is if Nvidia is light the stock's getting crucified if their revenues come in for any division light less than expected we all have seen what happens very quickly they look at top line revenue earnings and then they break down within a minute or two minutes of the information being disclosed in the SEC filings they look for any disappointment in any section of the business so with gpus if it's light because Blackwell's not at full shipping capacity yet and that's what I'm reading into it because of exactly what Amazon said then this stock's going to get crucified when they come out with earnings it's going to get beat the shit.
  and I'm hoping that we can sustain this rally on Nvidia up to earnings because I want out I don't want any part of this earnings announcement.
  I have no problem buying Nvidia back at 155 or $160 I'll sell puts below the market to collect the premium if the stock breaks out to the upside and I'm wrong I have no problem with that at all because if there's any weakness because Blackwell's not at full production yet and based off of what Amazon said it's there in black and white you can listen to them..
  I think you'll see below $110..
  and I hope I am wrong because I have a big position in Nvidia I sold my trading position at 1:46 and change my primary position I got hammered in like everybody else that was long wrote it down thank God it's coming back up and congratulations to everybody that had the brass balls to go in and buy at 114 113 115 you killed it you're smarter than me.
  but I'm very concerned about Blackwell in the 4th quarter relative to the statements during the conference call from Amazon

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• Sam Vandersey : long and nice write-up Mr Bamm.

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• 10baggerbamm OP Sam Vandersey : have you ever known me to be short on words?

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• sentosa island : good

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• Tonyco : I'm gonna start a trail at 407 i think!

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• Ultratech OP Tonyco : if it goes higher after won't matter too much. those little arrows aren't too reliable

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• Junius Falcon : MSFT EPS is actually growing slower, you will see that in NVDA one day as base EPS is becoming big, unless they figure out something else adding explosive growth (i.g. automotive, physical AI, etc.).P/EG of about 2.2 is surely not cheap. It would either drop quickly to 380 or up and down more so that future EPS lower the P/E while more growth from AI cloud, etc.And all that is while SP500 remaining stable

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• Ultratech OP Junius Falcon : I don't go by those moomoo distribution charts i see msft as being the largest holding of every major institutional holding though if it's good enough for them its good enough for me

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• Junius Falcon Ultratech OP : It is not moomoo chart, it is how you correlate company performance to stock price, the quantitative fundamental analysis. You would see many in finance professionals are accountants.
  They have hold it from the bottom since long time. When something wrong they drop it. So far MSFT is always OK and time to time they have new services and products adding to new cycles of growth.

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