104272950 : you dont know what you’re yapping about do you..

10baggerbamm OP : so CNBC is saying nvidia's price very expensive right now and they don't see hyperscalers spending continuing and I flipped a fox business..
and lo and behold here's another bobblehead and what is he talking about
the valuation of Nvidia is extremely expensive and I would not buy it on the rally that it just had I would only buy it on a sell-off
and then he was asked so do you sell off?
his response is well all of the tech stocks that are in the space are very expensive their price for perfection and there's really only downside movement at this point there's really no upside and that's what we're seeing is that investors are buying other sectors and they're avoiding technology because they believe it's going tol and trend lower..
I swear you're damned if you do you're damned if you don't
now we're going to have three more months of people telling us that Nvidia can't continue there's no way hyperscalers will spend their margins are coming under pressure they're going to be on a restricted list again from Trump that's going to hurt revenues..
Mike Lee should be on today I expect Dan Ives will be on today Cramer's a moron don't even worry what he has to say...
Mike Lee's always very bullish and he's a short-term trader mentality for his clients if something's going he's in it if the minute it breaks he's out of it he also has long-term holdings so I'm more interested in what his opinion is then Dan Ives who still thinks Tesla is the number one AI play for 2025 and yet the stocks down 200 bucks from when he said that

Junius Falcon : When those commentators talk about valuation, they only look at P/E, but they don't talk about the growth potential (only a few do). That's why the market most of the time respond to forward P/E or P/EG. Those commentators used to banks and slow market conditions for too long.
It's simple, you invest the future. I just do my calculations, then I listen to comments, so I know who is bs.

10baggerbamm OP Junius Falcon : absolutely everything is priced forward and the argument that's used is the same one for NVIDIA since July of last year
spending will peak it cannot continue.. this is the maximum capex that's going to be happening right now everybody the hyperscalers in particular are blowing their wads to build their infrastructure right now and once they slow down the other sovereign Nations that can buy Nvidia they can't offset the slowdown.. the smaller companies out there combined with the sovereign Nations that are not restricted they cannot offset the slowdown of the hyperscalers.
that's the argument it's the same argument that was used last year.
so this is the big rally right here 132 and a half dollars we were $10 higher Thursday last week..
what that means is we get a bad economic number geopolitically something happens tech stock sell off something call it Market volatility manipulation whatever you want to say Nvidia trades down it'll go back down to 122 123 119 again on a bad sell-off..
gone are the days where the stock is gapping up $20 I think we can agree to that it's done it's over

Junius Falcon 10baggerbamm OP : There will be a limit yes, but not as soon as we can see, I would say in years. As said not to speculate, they beat this time and guidance still looks great.
It is not only about big caps spending, more countries will start to invest too, then replace. As mentioned in ER, the industry is toward training more complex models that will x 1 million of power (maybe exaggeration, but there is definitely more AI applications coming requiring new trainings), and also more real time inference demand (more users of Reasoning function, etc.).
So it may grow slower, but long term is up, down trend is temporary.

10baggerbamm OP Junius Falcon : the earnings were great and I think they set the forward expectations where they know they can smoke them again by four or five percent if not more..
don't like is how cavalier Jensen spoke about the problems with Nvidia that they had a hiccup.
that hiccup was over 6 months it was glossed over by them multiple times last year Bloomberg broke the story very early on mid last year problems with Blackwell and then it was confirmed but it was always like no big deal for NVIDIA will take care of it like a bad meal getting sent back and needs to be re-cooked that type of thing.. and it kicked off 6 months of delays. now we're hearing about ultra Blackwell that's pushed off this year beginning next year it's was supposed to be a story for where like May to June , ultra Blackwell.. and that's shoved 6 months into the future at this point and forget Ruben and you even heard Jensen say yesterday and I want to go back and listen to him again because I had a few drinks under my belt when he was talking during the conference call..
but he made a statement saying there's many times chips are designed but never put into production
and I want to listen to that context because to me when I first heard that I was thinking they're not going to be producing Reuben based off of that statement..
the bigger picture concerned that I have is there is competition coming and some are private companies an AMD is much as I hate them they do all for a lower cost solution and there is no supply issues with AMD they can deliver what you order it's not like they're producing 100% of everything and there's a backlog and on allotment.. you got in-house designed by Google by Amazon they're all coming up with alternate solutions that are specific that are niche and no they don't offer the grand scale of what Blackwell can do especially with video and I didn't hear really Jensen talk about that last night during the call either I may have missed it but I didn't hear him specifically talk about that.. the point is NVIDIA is now 6 months behind the curve there's 6 months behind schedule.. smaller companies are able to ramp up and scale very quick Nvidia is the 800 lb gorilla competitions coming..Huawei produces GPUs under its Ascend series, primarily targeting AI applications
Ascend 910B comparable to Nvidia's A100
Ascend 910C: Claimed to match Nvidia's H100 in performance, with significant adoption by Chinese companies like Baidu and ByteDance
so this gets back to what is the upside in the stock at the end of the day..
so if it goes to 148 this year 150 let's say that's not a huge percent return relative to the downside risk it's like 50/50 Nvidia can very easily go back down to 120 to 118 on a market sell-off..
so if it goes up another 18 points to 150 you got the same amount of the downside here..
to me that makes a dead money