Is the storm in the U.S. stock market not far away? UBS Group: The shadow of Trump has not dissipated, and the S&P 500 is expected to fall another 8%.

① Recent stabilization and rebound of US stocks, but UBS Group chief strategist Bhanu Baweja believes that weak Consumer in the USA will lead to a further 8% drop in the S&P 500 Index; ② The Consumer confidence index in the USA fell to a four-year low in December, supporting Baweja's viewpoint that Indicators such as employment expectations, spending prospects, and consumer confidence are sending warning signals.

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US stocks closed: A significant drop in consumer confidence in the USA, the three major indices narrowly maintained gains.

1. The Consumer confidence Index in the USA has dropped to its lowest level in four years, impacting the upward momentum of the US stock market; 2. Various data indicate that the US stock market is in a state of "Institutions fleeing, Retail investors buying in large quantities"; 3. Google executives predict that quantum computing will rewrite the future within five years; 4. Apple's special WWDC25 event will be held on June 9.

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The "soft data" continues to deteriorate, with the Philadelphia Fed services survey Index falling to its lowest level since the pandemic.

Data shows that the current activity Index in the service sector has sharply dropped from -13.1 to -32.5, reaching the lowest level since May 2020, and the future activity expectations Indicators are even worse. This is consistent with the recent trend of deterioration in several "soft data" indicators, although the "hard data" remains relatively robust.

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