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Who will implement the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut first as expectations rise to the maximum? Industry predictions suggest that the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut by the end of the year is relatively high, while an i
① Currently, it has entered the observation period for policy effects, and the signals for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are unclear. The probability of an interest rate cut this week is low, but the likelihood of a reserve requirement cut before the end of the year is higher, and the interest rate cut may have to wait until 2025 for a suitable opportunity; ② A domestic interest rate cut may further increase short-term Exchange Rates pressure, and the probability of a short-term reserve requirement cut is greater than that of an interest rate cut. Recently, the Renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar has declined, reflecting more of a passive depreciation nature.
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The central bank today net withdrew 643.5 billion yuan from the open market, and the year-end funding situation will remain relatively loose.
1. It is believed in the industry that the central bank is currently inclined to "protect but not excessively loosen" the monetary policy, focusing on whether to initiate a Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut before and after the MLF renewal. 2. The central bank will strive to maintain reasonable and ample market liquidity, and the volatility of the funding situation at the end of the year will be significantly lower than in previous years.
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Timely lowering of reserve requirements and interest rates, preventing and resolving risks in key areas, maintaining stable Exchange Rates. The central bank, financial regulatory authority, and Forex bureau collectively responded on how to proceed next ye
① The central bank also pointed out the need to explore and expand the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank, and effectively implement two monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the Capital Markets. Experts indicate that this statement significantly improves market expectations and enhances market anticipation for a slow bull market trend in the medium to long term; ② The Financial Regulatory Bureau pointed out the necessity to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, continuously improving the quality and effectiveness of financial regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the Banking and Insurance industries.
The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and timely reduce the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity.
① Implement a moderately loose MMF policy effectively. ② Better support key areas and weak links of high-quality development.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange: In November, Banks settled 1465.8 billion yuan and sold 1440.9 billion yuan.
According to Statistics from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, in November 2024, Banks exchanged 1,465.8 billion yuan and sold 1,440.9 billion yuan.
In November, China's industrial added value above the designated size increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with New energy Fund, Siasun Robot&Automation, and integrated circuits leading the growth.
From January to November, the added value of large-scale industries grew by 5.8% year-on-year. Among them, the production of New energy Fund vehicles, Siasun Robot&Automation, and integrated circuit products increased by 51.1%, 29.3%, and 8.7% respectively.
National Statistics Bureau: In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year.
In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,376.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.0% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding Autos were 3,899.8 billion yuan, showing a growth of 2.5%. From January to November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 44,272.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding Autos were 39,796 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%.
China's November Retail Sales Rise 3.0%, Industrial Production up 5.4%
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November financial data has been released. The M2 growth rate has declined year-on-year. How should we view the slowdown in social financing and the decreased new Crediting year-on-year?
1. The speed and rhythm of social financing scale and Crediting in November are relatively stable, and financial support for the real economy remains strong; 2. In December, the scale of hidden debt replacement will further increase, which may continue to cause significant disturbances to new Crediting and new social financing data.
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