HSBC is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, and the US and Canada are expected to break through 1.3750 and reach 1.3900!
In the survey from July 16th to 19th, nearly three-quarters of the surveyed economists expected the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday this week. The surveyed economists also predict that the Bank of Canada will pause its easing cycle at the September meeting, and then resume interest rate cuts in October and December. Forex analyst Saqib Iqbal pointed out that if the USD/CAD breaks through the 1.3600 support and 1.3750 resistance range, it will return to the key level of 1.3900.
Canada Producer Prices Flat in June, Raw Material Costs Slide
Excluding energy products, producer prices edged up 0.1% on-month, the data agency said Friday.
U.K. Retail Sales Tumbled as Consumers Showed Election Caution -- Update
U.K. shoppers turned away from retail outlets last month, after highs in May, amid election jitters and poor weather.
Pound Sterling Declines After Weak UK Retail Sales Report
The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its correction against majority of its peers in Friday’s London session.
Canadian Dollar Gives a Mixed Thursday Performance
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) recovered some ground in mixed trading on Thursday but still shed weight against the Greenback, the market’s best-performing currency of the day.
Canada Unemployment Rate Expected To Peak at 6.6% -- Market Talk
CIBC Capital Markets revises its economic forecast for Canada, with the most notable change being an uptick in the unemployment rate.
UK Jobs Data Cooled the Pound
The UK labour market is experiencing a cooling phase. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in June increased by 32.3K after a jump of 51.9K a month earlier.
GBP: Inflation Remains Stubborn – Commerzbank
Wednesday's UK inflation figures were slightly higher than expected, Commerzbank FX analysts Ulrich Leuchtmann and Michael Pfister note.
BOE Faces Easing Jobs Market Balanced With Sticky Inflation
Despite a cooling U.K. labor-market, it is marginally less probable that the Bank of England's first rate cut will materialize in August after inflation for June failed to cool any further, says Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors. The stubborn levels of core inflation, driven in part by persistently high wage growth in an economy short of workers, is a key reason why the BOE is yet to cut rates, she says in a note. Nonetheless, with inflation at target and the labour market showing some signs of cooling as vacancies continue to decline, more members of the bank's monetary-policy committee will likely vote for a cut in the August meeting than the two in June, she adds.
BOE August Decision a Close Call After Labor Data -- Market Talk
1001 GMT - U.K. employment data suggest that labor-market conditions are loosening and that pay growth is easing, Investec economist Philip Shaw says in a note.
U.K. Wage Growth Moderation Might Not Be Enough to Prompt August Rate Cut
U.K. labor market data released on Thursday showed that wage growth is moderating but remains at a high level. It is therefore unlikely to convince Bank of England policymakers to cut interest rates in August, Nick Rees, Monex forex market analyst says in a note.
Encouraging U.K. Wage Data Doesn't Make Up for Stubborn Inflation -- Market Talk
The unemployment rate held at 4.4%, but there are signs the labor market is loosening, as single-month employment fell by 81,000 and the number of job vacancies fell further.
Gilt Yields Fall as Slowing U.K. Wage Growth Boosts Rate-Cut Prospects
Gilt yields decline after U.K. labor market data showed decelerating wage growth, increasing prospects that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates in August. Three-month average earnings growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 5.7% in the three months to May from 6.0% in April, in line with expectations. "May average weekly earnings growth declined despite the upward pressures from the minimum wage rise and immigration restrictions in April," Tomasz Wieladek chief European economist at T. Rowe Price says in a note. Markets price in a 39% chance of an August BOE rate cut, up from 34% beforehand, Refinitiv data show. The 10-year gilt yield declines 1 basis point to 4.067%, Tradeweb data show.
UK salary growth slows to 5.7%, adding more uncertainty about the central bank's rate cut in August.
In the three months ending in May, the United Kingdom's income after deducting bonuses (a key indicator used by the Bank of England to measure inflationary pressure) increased by 5.7% year-on-year.
Pound Sterling Edges Lower After UK Employment Data
The Pound Sterling (GBP) exhibits a subdued performance against its major peers in Thursday’s London session.
UK Unemployment Rate Steadies at 4.4% in Quarter to May, as Expected
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to May after reporting 4.4% in the previous period, according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Thursday.
Canadian Dollar Slips Back on Wednesday as Markets Reassess BoC Rate Decision
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed weight on Wednesday as investors take a second look at Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures released earlier in the week.
GBP: Bulls Get a Lift From UK CPI Report – Rabobank
The slightly firmer than expected release of UK CPI inflation this morning has given GBP bulls another lift.
Is BoE Governor Bailey a Swiftie? – UBS
UK June inflation was broadly as expected, and on target. However, the popular music artist Taylor Swift had several UK concerts in June. Swifties need some place to stay.
U.K. Inflation Holds Steady at Bank of England Target, Keeping Rate Cut in Play -- 3rd Update
The U.K.'s rate of inflation was unchanged at the Bank of England's target in June, leaving the door open for an interest-rate cut at its August meeting, despite concerns about rapid rises in services prices.