The RBA is set to release its February monetary policy decision on February 18. The market now sees a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, which would bring the cash rate down from 4.35% to 4.10%. If the RBA cuts rates in February, it would mark the first rate cut since the cash rate was raised to 4.35% in November 2023, and the first in over four years, signaling Australia's official entry into a rate-cutting cycle. RBA rate cu...
Another adjustment period. Could be good for those with cash. While tech stocks Meta, Apple, Intel set new highs US inflation blew hotter than expected, rising back to 3.3%, ringing little alarm bells for US stocks, which lost their footing. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, falling to its 50-day average at one point, suggesting caution is in. But some stocks are unshaken from the noise. Meta$Meta Platforms (META.US)$rose for ...
The Aussie share market is outperforming the US. This could continue this year US stocks marched mostly higher overnight. The S&P 500$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$has now gained US$2 trillion in value this year after rising 3.2%. The Aussie share market$S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$is up 4% this year, after rising by AU$100 billion. This is despite the US Federal Reserve again throwing cold water on any potenti...
$CommBank (CBA.AU)$ As per my previous commentary, going through todays result confirms Australia is in trouble. This banks P/e after todays ordinary result remains around the same. Get out of bank stocks whilst you still can!! Park in fixed cash for a while. That was the golden era for banking post covid. It aint getting better! 2.5% returns on a 73% payout!!! Commercial writedowns of a whole bunch of useless property to come next time! Cannot believe this stock was tr...
US tech stocks rebound; hedge funds buy AI stocks. Nasdaq 100 earnings +21% US stocks rebounded on Monday after the Friday sell off. That’s a clear trend taking shape this year that can’t be ignored (as we highlighted yesterday). The S&P 500$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$and the Nasdaq 100$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$are now in ear shot of their record all time highs (and just need to puff up 1.4% and 0.58%) to hit blue sky. ...
Jessica Amir
OP
TWIMO (151403908)
:
of course. Yes. I start at 7am. I've been working in finance for almost 20 years. So I guess I have learnt a bit over the years. The beauty is we are always learning. And there is always opportunity. Please connect with me on socials. And thank you for your kind feedback. It means a lot. I used to advise clients on what to do with their money. Happy to always chat, but all information is general in nature, and not advice :)
TWIMO (151403908)
Jessica Amir
OP
:
Understood on the non-advise. I appreciate it. Is your company or are you testing any AI tool to simplify your work and analysis activities?
151453268 witso
:
Gold thesis, keeping the eye on the pie some recipes need time to simmer on the rite temp. Newmont Blue chip slow burn what are your sneaky,explosive and speccy stocks Jess, you let one slip keeps it interesting.
$CommBank (CBA.AU)$ This stock has the ability to send the entire asx200 tumbling, they have already started selling a banking asset in China as a clue free cash concerns. The bank is low on liquidity & you will see in there earnings operating at heavy losses. Cashflow negative by a-lot!!! The fact the ETF money gets sent to the top has seen this banks P/e blow out to 28 & 3.7 book. what do you think happens when empty commerical property needs to be liquidated...
US stocks soured on Friday. The S&P 500 fell 1% as a US jobs report and a jump in US wages basically showed there’s no need for the US central bank to cut rates Amazon was the hardest hit, falling 4.1%. Tesla, Lululemon, and Google followed, all falling more than 3%. (It seems that a 'Friday curse' I’ve noticed for four straight weeks needs to be taken seriously. Stocks see heavy...
Hi, mooers! $CommBank (CBA.AU)$is releasing its earnings on February 12. Unlock insights with CBA Earnings Hub>> Rewards ● An equal share of 5,000 points: For mooers who correctly guess the price range of CBA's closing price at 4pm AEDT February 12 (e.g., If 50 mooers make a correct guess, each of them will get 100 points.) (Vote will close at 1pm AEDT February12) ● Exclusive 300 points: For the writer of the top post on analyzing ...
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Lucas Cheah
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$CommBank (CBA.AU)$ Earnings Prospects 1. Key Revenue Drivers a) Interest Rate Environment & Net Interest Margin (NIM) CBA's earnings are highly sensitive to interest rate changes set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). A higher interest rate environment typically boosts NIM, while lower rates compress margins. Examples: • In FY 2024, CBA’s NIM was 2.07%, down from 2.10% in FY 2023, due to strong competition in lending and deposit pricing pressures. • If the RBA begins cutting interest rates in 2025, CBA’s NIM could decline further, impacting profitability. Impact on Earnings: • Scenario 1 (Stable/High Rates) → Stronger NIM, higher interest income. • Scenario 2 (Rate Cuts) → Lower NIM, pressure on earnings, but potential mortgage volume growth. b) Mortgage & Business Lending Growth CBA is Australia’s largest home loan provider, with nearly 25% market share in mortgages. Examples: • In Q3 FY 2024, CBA’s home loan portfolio grew by $7.2 billion, supported by stable housing demand. • First-home buyers and refinancers continue to drive mortgage lending growth. Impact on Earnings: • A strong housing market supports CBA’s loan growth and interest income. • Rising unemployment or a property downturn could increase loan defaults, impacting earnings. c) Business & Institutional Banking Expansion CBA has been expanding its business lending and corporate banking services. Examples: • Business loan growth of $4.5 billion in Q3 2024, reflecting increased demand from small and medium enterprises (SMEs). • Increased lending to infrastructure, renewable energy, and technology sectors is driving business banking revenues. Impact on Earnings: • Diversifies revenue away from mortgages, supporting earnings stability. • Growth in business banking fees and merchant services revenue adds to profitability. d) Wealth Management & Digital Banking CBA has focused on expanding digital services, financial advisory, and wealth management. Examples: • CBA launched "Kit"—a digital banking service for kids, increasing customer engagement from an early age. • Digital transactions now account for over 70% of total banking activity, reducing branch-related costs. Impact on Earnings: • Lower operating costs due to digital banking efficiencies. • Increased fee-based income from wealth management and advisory services. 2. Key Growth Catalysts a) Cost Efficiency & Digital Transformation CBA is investing heavily in automation, AI-driven banking, and digital customer experiences to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Examples: • AI-Powered Fraud Detection: CBA’s AI systems reduced online fraud losses by 32% in 2024, enhancing customer trust. • $400 million investment in cloud-based banking services, improving operational efficiency. Impact on Earnings: • Lower operating expenses, higher profit margins. • Greater customer retention due to improved banking experiences. b) Expansion into Sustainable Finance & ESG Lending CBA is growing its presence in green financing, sustainability-linked loans, and renewable energy investments. Examples: • $3.5 billion in green loans issued in FY 2024 to businesses investing in solar, wind, and sustainable projects. • Increased participation in ESG bonds, catering to institutional investors. Impact on Earnings: • New revenue streams from corporate clients adopting sustainability goals. • Increased institutional investment interest in CBA due to ESG commitments. c) Potential Mergers, Acquisitions & Market Expansion CBA may expand via acquisitions or partnerships to strengthen its financial services portfolio. Examples: • Acquisition of a fintech startup to enhance digital banking capabilities. • Expansion of business lending products through strategic partnerships. Impact on Earnings: • Diversification into high-margin financial services. • Enhanced competitiveness against neo-banks and digital challengers. 3. Challenges & Risks a) Interest Rate Volatility • RBA rate cuts in 2025 could pressure NIM and reduce profitability. • Lower mortgage rates = Lower interest income, unless loan volumes offset the impact. b) Housing Market Risks • Rising unemployment or economic slowdown could lead to higher mortgage defaults. • CBA’s $580 billion mortgage portfolio is heavily exposed to Australian property trends. c) Competition from Neo-Banks & Fintechs • Digital-first banks like Up Bank and Judo Bank are gaining traction, especially among younger customers. • CBA must continue investing in digital services to retain market share. In conclusion, CBA’s long-term earnings growth remains stable, with strong mortgage lending, digital banking expansion, and cost-efficiency initiatives. While interest rate pressures and housing risks remain challenges, CBA’s size, brand, and financial strength make it a resilient player in the Australian banking sector.
CommBank Stock Forum
If the RBA cuts rates in February, it would mark the first rate cut since the cash rate was raised to 4.35% in November 2023, and the first in over four years, signaling Australia's official entry into a rate-cutting cycle.
RBA rate cu...
US inflation blew hotter than expected, rising back to 3.3%, ringing little alarm bells for US stocks, which lost their footing. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, falling to its 50-day average at one point, suggesting caution is in. But some stocks are unshaken from the noise. Meta $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ rose for ...
Top losers: $Perseus Mining Ltd (PRU.AU)$, $Emerald Resources NL (EMR.AU)$ and $Domino's Pizza Enterprises Ltd (DMP.AU)$
Australian stocks ended higher on Wednesday, bucking the trend of mixed performances in US and Asian markets. The positive close came despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's cautiou...
US stocks marched mostly higher overnight. The S&P 500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ has now gained US$2 trillion in value this year after rising 3.2%. The Aussie share market $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ is up 4% this year, after rising by AU$100 billion. This is despite the US Federal Reserve again throwing cold water on any potenti...
As per my previous commentary, going through todays result confirms Australia is in trouble. This banks P/e after todays ordinary result remains around the same. Get out of bank stocks whilst you still can!! Park in fixed cash for a while. That was the golden era for banking post covid. It aint getting better! 2.5% returns on a 73% payout!!! Commercial writedowns of a whole bunch of useless property to come next time! Cannot believe this stock was tr...
US stocks rebounded on Monday after the Friday sell off. That’s a clear trend taking shape this year that can’t be ignored (as we highlighted yesterday). The S&P 500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ and the Nasdaq 100 $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ are now in ear shot of their record all time highs (and just need to puff up 1.4% and 0.58%) to hit blue sky. ...
This stock has the ability to send the entire asx200 tumbling, they have already started selling a banking asset in China as a clue free cash concerns. The bank is low on liquidity & you will see in there earnings operating at heavy losses. Cashflow negative by a-lot!!! The fact the ETF money gets sent to the top has seen this banks P/e blow out to 28 & 3.7 book. what do you think happens when empty commerical property needs to be liquidated...
Amazon was the hardest hit, falling 4.1%. Tesla, Lululemon, and Google followed, all falling more than 3%. (It seems that a 'Friday curse' I’ve noticed for four straight weeks needs to be taken seriously. Stocks see heavy...
$CommBank (CBA.AU)$ is releasing its earnings on February 12. Unlock insights with CBA Earnings Hub>>
Rewards
● An equal share of 5,000 points: For mooers who correctly guess the price range of CBA's closing price at 4pm AEDT February 12 (e.g., If 50 mooers make a correct guess, each of them will get 100 points.)
(Vote will close at 1pm AEDT February12)
● Exclusive 300 points: For the writer of the top post on analyzing ...
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