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China Securities Co., Ltd. banks industry 2025 investment strategy report: Policy intensification leads to a gradual recovery, focusing on different bank investment themes under different scenarios.
The actual macroeconomic indicators are still in the process of gradual recovery, and the banks sector is in a context of "strong policy expectations and weak fundamental realities." Depending on the different performances of the future economy, the banks sector will each have different investment themes.
Rare! This rural commercial bank is offering a 5-year fixed deposit interest rate of 1.5%, which is lower than the 1.55% level of state-owned banks. It is referred to as a "case" in the industry.
①Recently, Wuxiang Rural Commercial Bank adjusted the deposit execution interest rates, lowering the execution interest rates for personal fixed-term deposits of two years, three years, and five years to 1.5%, with the five-year execution interest rate being lowered below the lowest level of the state-owned banks' published rates. ②The phenomenon of the aforementioned rural commercial bank reducing rates beyond the mid- to long-term levels of state-owned banks is still considered an isolated case.
Banks' dormant account cleanup is gradually extending to corporate accounts. This rural commercial bank announced that it will clean up long-suspended accounts of units, and many other banks are also handling this.
On the morning of November 20, Jinchang Rural Commercial Bank announced that it will clean up and close some unit bank settlement accounts that have been inactive for a long time. Recently, some banks have adopted similar practices to Jinchang Rural Commercial Bank, including Dangyang Rural Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank Weifang Branch, Bank of Nanjing.
The unchanged LPR in November meets market expectations. Industry insiders do not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts next year along with the reverse repurchase rate.
① By the end of the year, the economic running is expected to continue its upward trend, with policy interest rates likely to remain stable and LPR quote also expected to stay unchanged. ② There is a high possibility of further reductions in deposit rates in the future, coupled with the issuance of special treasury bonds to support large state-owned commercial banks in replenishing their core tier one capital, which is expected to gradually alleviate the interest spread and operational pressure for commercial banks. It is possible that next year the LPR quote may be accompanied by further interest rate cuts on reverse repurchase agreements.
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Interbank current deposit rates are significantly higher than policy rates. Some large banks face high liability pressures. The market expects pricing levels to be regulated.
1. Some banks' interbank current deposit rates are significantly higher than the current policy rates, significantly impacting short-term interest rates and increasing banks' liability costs. 2. The market anticipates that in the future, the level of interbank current deposit rates will be reasonably determined, effectively reducing banks' liability costs.
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