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The impact of the collective balance sheet reduction by the central banks of the United States, Japan, Europe, and the United Kingdom is difficult to predict. Everyone can only feel their way across the river by touching the stones.

After exploring multiple unknown areas over the past two decades, central banks in developed countries are entering a new phase: the first joint implementation of quantitative tightening policy. The Bank of Japan decided last month to steadily reduce its holdings of bonds over the next few years, meaning that the bank will be reducing its balance sheet at the same time as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. Although the situation of balance sheet reduction varies in different regions, it all involves central banks withdrawing the liquidity injected into the economy during the pandemic period through bond purchases. When the Federal Reserve first reduced its balance sheet in 2019, the money market suddenly fell into chaos, catching policymakers off guard. Although Powell has stated that the Federal Reserve has learned from this.

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