The Pacific Securities 2025 Banks industry strategy: dividends, risk improvement, and pro-cyclical drivers to hedge against margin pressure.
In the future, with the improvement of risk expectations and the continued focus on Market Cap management, the Banks Sector is expected to welcome a revaluation.
MINSHENG BANK officially announced an adjustment to the risk ratings of some publicly offered Funds that had been raised multiple times last year.
① Starting from January 10, MINSHENG BANK will adjust the risk ratings of certain publicly offered Fund products; ② Analysts indicate that investors should "understand the rules and identify the risks."
On the first trading day of the New Year, Bank stocks opened high and then fell back. Many Institutions: the opening performance may be better than in previous years, but the trend of declining net interest margin remains unchanged.
① The crediting ratio between each quarter is expected to recover to a ratio of 4:3:2:1. ② It is expected that policy trends will continue, gradually boosting demand in the Real Estate sector. ③ This year, the decline in net interest margin for Banks is narrower compared to 2024, with a calculated interest margin of 1.34% under neutral assumptions.
Hong Kong stocks are fluctuating | Some China Mainland Banking stocks rose in the afternoon. The five major banks have recently reached new highs for the year. Institutions believe that funds are expected to increase their allocation to the banking sector
Some China Mainland Banking stocks rose in the afternoon, with the five major banks recently hitting new highs for the year. As of the time of publication, Bank of Qingdao (03866) rose 3.94% to HKD 2.9; MINSHENG BANK (01988) increased 3% to HKD 3.43; Bank Of Communications (03328) rose 1.74% to HKD 6.43; Postal Savings Bank Of China (01658) increased 1.56% to HKD 4.56.
Bank stocks have surged for several consecutive days, and the Hang Seng Index has recovered to 20,000 points. Bullish Signals from the fiscal side are favorable for the continuation of the rebound | Hong Kong stock barometer.
① The Hang Seng Index stands above the 20,000-point mark; why is it so strong in the short term? ② The fiscal side releases Bullish Signals; can it help sustain the rebound?
Outperforming 92% of stocks within the year! The four major banks have reached a new high again, and this month they have all faced Shareholding reductions by financing clients.
① Today, the stock prices of the four major banks collectively set new historical highs, with an average increase of nearly 47% this year, outperforming 92% of stocks during the same period. ② Excluding new stocks, a total of 10 stocks reached historical highs today, most of which are CNI Mid-Small Cap.Index stocks, with a relatively high number of Transportation stocks. ③ The four major banks have all experienced shareholding reductions by financing clients this month, including the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China, which has seen a net sell-off of nearly 0.2 billion yuan in financing this month.
The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved New Hope Liuhe to increase its shareholding in MINSHENG BANK.
Jinwu Financial News | The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced that New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. is approved to increase its shareholding in MINSHENG BANK (01988/600016) by no more than 68 million shares through the secondary market within six months from the date of approval. After the increase, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. and its concerted parties will hold no more than 2.24 billion shares of MINSHENG BANK, with a shareholding ratio of no more than 5.12%. MINSHENG BANK announced on the evening of November 18 that New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. intends to increase its shareholding in the bank through the secondary market.
At the end of the year, the capital inflow dividend Assets for Hong Kong stocks in China Mainland Banking showed a collective short-term strength.
① What changes are occurring in the trend of end-of-year capital return to Assets? ② China Mainland Banking stocks in the Hong Kong market are collectively strengthening in the short term; which individual stocks are attracting capital attention?
In order to respond to the "intense battle" next year? At the end of the year, many Banks are making intensive adjustments to their Business structure, and the special mechanism for the "five major articles" is gradually being established.
① First, merging the functions of the head office departments clearly indicates a reduction in costs and an increase in efficiency; second, a special department dedicated to the five major articles is being established. ② Retailing Crediting may become one of the focal points for Banks next year. ③ It is expected that the special institutions for the five major articles will be established gradually, as each one matures.
The LPR Quote for December has been released! The 1-year and 5-year rates remain unchanged.
More news, continuously updating.
Interest rates can reach 3%! Small and medium-sized Banks have densely launched high-interest products such as large-denomination certificates of deposit and special deposits. How will the pressure for short-term deposit strategies be relieved in the futu
① Some small and medium-sized Banks have engaged in such behavior, which somewhat contradicts the current downward trend of deposit interest rates, possibly being a short-term strategy taken to meet the funding Indicators in the short term. ② The overall trend of deposit interest rates may continue to decline in the future, and the recent rapid decline in bond market interest rates may also face some adjustments.
Encouraging to "seize the opportunities of moderately loose MMF policy," many local officials are intensively researching local Banks at the end of the year, is a good start for next year to be expected.
① In discussions with local officials, frequently mentioned keywords include comprehensive, accelerated, risk, and servicing the local economy. ② For Financial Institutions, "the moderately loose monetary policy from the central government brings opportunities while also posing challenges." ③ If some mechanisms for due diligence exemption can be provided, it is expected to ease the lending pressure on Banks.
Once again, the rights of high-end customers at banks have shrunk. After Construction Bank, MINSHENG BANK has adjusted the "Extraordinary Privileges" redemption rules, with cost reduction still being the core demand.
On December 16, MINSHENG BANK announced on its official website that in the first quarter of next year, it plans to adjust some rules for the exceptional service rights program for retail customers, including raising the credit points for services such as airport High-speed Rail pick-up and drop-off. Many banks continue to adjust credit card points redemption rules, which is not surprising. The fundamental reason is the pressure on interest margins, which constantly dilutes banks' profits, forcing them to 'reduce costs and increase efficiency.'
Notice highlights | China Eastern Airlines Corporation's passenger traffic increased by about 20% in November; CTIHK expects an annual Net income growth of no less than 30%.
In November, CHINA SOUTH AIR's passenger capacity input rose by 7.18% year-on-year; passenger turnover increased by 15.17% year-on-year; China Eastern Airlines' passenger capacity input increased by 9.19% year-on-year; passenger turnover increased by 20.86% year-on-year.
Liu Yonghao has taken action! He purchased 17.61 million shares of MINSHENG BANK Listed in Hong Kong, increasing his shareholding proportion to 5%. This round of shareholding will reach 68 million shares.
① New Hope Liuhe has already increased its shareholding in MINSHENG BANK by 17,616,500 H shares with its own funds on December 16, 2024, which accounts for 0.04% of MINSHENG BANK's total shares. ② The total number of shares increased through the secondary market this time will not exceed 68,000,000 shares. After the increase, New Hope Liuhe and its concerted parties will hold no more than 5.12% of the shares.
MINSHENG BANK: New Hope Liuhe plans to increase its shareholding by no more than 68 million shares has been approved.
MINSHENG BANK (01988) announced that it recently received the "Approval of the National Financial Regulatory Administration for Changes in Equity of MINSHENG BANK" (Jin Fu [2024] No. 816). The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved New Hope Liuhe Chemical Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "New Hope Liuhe Chemical") to increase its shareholding in the bank through the secondary market for no more than 68 million shares within six months from the date of approval. After the increase, New Hope Liuhe Chemical and its concerted action parties will hold no more than approximately 2.2395 billion shares in the bank, with a shareholding ratio not exceeding 5.12%.
The interest rates of the same industry certificates of deposit are rapidly declining, and under "moderately loose" conditions, there is hope to drop to 1.30%.
1. After the improvement in MMF transmission efficiency, the CD interest rate and the 7-day OMO rate will integrate within the next year. 2. Due to the faster decline of long-term bonds, the spread between the 10Y government bond and the 1Y CD has been compressing, and is currently at 13BP.
MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH): New Hope Liuhe's proposal to increase shareholding has been approved.
On December 13, Gelonghui reported that MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH) announced that the company has received the "Approval from the National Financial Supervision Administration on the Change of Shareholding of MINSHENG BANK" (Jin Fu [2024] No. 816). The National Financial Supervision Administration agrees to New Hope Liuhe Chemical Investment Co., Ltd. (referred to as "New Hope Liuhe Chemical") to increase its shareholding in the bank by no more than 68,000,000 shares through the secondary market within six months from the date of the approval. After the increase, New Hope Liuhe Chemical and its concerted actors will hold no more than 2,239,504,689 shares in the bank, with a shareholding ratio of no more than 5.12%.
The interest rates for consumer loans at some "2"-tier banks will decrease by 10 basis points again in December, while the lowest interest rate at major banks has already dropped by 50 basis points this year.
① The consumer loan products promoted by banks with extremely low interest rates are mostly aimed at high-quality customers, so it is important for customers to pay attention to the actual interest rate level when applying, and then decide whether to borrow. ② The reduction in personal consumer loan interest rates helps to lower the costs for holders of consumer crediting, promoting demand for consumer crediting, and thus driving consumption.
As the year-end approaches, many banks are warning about the "standard usage of credit cards" and will periodically take control measures against abnormal customers.
Since late November, more than ten banks have intensively issued reminders about the "standard use of credit cards," including several national commercial banks and many local small and medium-sized banks; on December 6, Qilu Bank issued a reminder that consumers must not rent or lend their credit cards, and it is prohibited for others to make repayments on their behalf, "irregular control will be implemented on abnormal customers."
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