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Traders See the Odds of a Fed Rate Cut by September at 100%
The probabilities are based on trading in CME Fed Funds futures contracts.
In the second quarter of 2024, the daily average trading volume in the international market of CME reached a record-breaking 7.8 million contract shares.
According to the Wisdom Financial APP, the global leading derivative market CME recently announced that its quarterly international market average daily trading volume reached a record high of 7.8 million contracts in the second quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%.
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Unsatisfied with the 25 basis points, traders are starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will make a big move to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
Bond traders are increasing their bets on the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September, rather than the standard 25 basis points. This is evident in the federal funds futures market. The weaker-than-expected inflation data released on Thursday has triggered a buying frenzy in October, which continued on Friday. Contracts expiring on October 31 have already fully digested the expectation that policymakers will cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 18 meeting. Any bid at higher price levels implies that more people may believe that the Fed may launch the first easing cycle in years with a decisive move. Positions also benefit from