CME Q2 2024 Earnings Preview
Notable Earnings Before Wednesday's Open
Morgan Stanley Maintains CME Group(CME.US) With Hold Rating, Cuts Target Price to $206
Morgan Stanley Keeps Their Hold Rating on CME Group (CME)
Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on CME Group to $206 From $225, Maintains Equalweight Rating
The central parity rate of RMB is reported at 7.1334, up 1 point.
On July 23, the central parity rate of the RMB was reported at 7.1334, up 1 point from the previous trading day's central parity rate of 7.1335. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in August is 97.4% according to CME's "Federal Reserve Watch": the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until September is 6.8%, the probability of an accumulated 25 basis point rate cut is 90.8%, and the probability of an accumulated 50 basis point rate cut is 2.4%. Wells Fargo & Co: believes that the Federal Reserve will open the door to rate cuts this month, despite growing political unrest in the United States, investors
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US unemployment claims hit their highest level since August of last year.
Last week, the number of weekly jobless claims increased more than expected, which is the latest sign of cooling in the labor market. According to the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits was 243,000 as of the week of July 13, higher than the previous week's 222,000 and also higher than economists' expectations of 229,000. This is consistent with the number of weekly jobless claims in June and represents the highest level since August 2023. At the same time, the number of people continuously applying for unemployment benefits has reached its highest level since November 2021, with the number of people applying for unemployment benefits approaching 1.
Traders See the Odds of a Fed Rate Cut by September at 100%
In the second quarter of 2024, the daily average trading volume in the international market of CME reached a record-breaking 7.8 million contract shares.
According to the Wisdom Financial APP, the global leading derivative market CME recently announced that its quarterly international market average daily trading volume reached a record high of 7.8 million contracts in the second quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23%.
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Unsatisfied with the 25 basis points, traders are starting to bet that the Federal Reserve will make a big move to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
Bond traders are increasing their bets on the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September, rather than the standard 25 basis points. This is evident in the federal funds futures market. The weaker-than-expected inflation data released on Thursday has triggered a buying frenzy in October, which continued on Friday. Contracts expiring on October 31 have already fully digested the expectation that policymakers will cut rates by 25 basis points at the September 18 meeting. Any bid at higher price levels implies that more people may believe that the Fed may launch the first easing cycle in years with a decisive move. Positions also benefit from
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