China Manufacturing Activity Expands for Third Consecutive Month in December- PMI
National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: In December, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has been in the expansion Range for three consecutive months, and the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index has significantly rebounded.
On December 31, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation.
National Statistics: December PMI is 50.1%, continuing to maintain expansion.
In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing sector continues to expand; The Manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion Range for three consecutive months, while the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index has significantly rebounded.
PBOC Governor Pan: Room for Lower Rate
Who will implement the reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut first as expectations rise to the maximum? Industry predictions suggest that the likelihood of a reserve requirement ratio cut by the end of the year is relatively high, while an i
① Currently, it has entered the observation period for policy effects, and the signals for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are unclear. The probability of an interest rate cut this week is low, but the likelihood of a reserve requirement cut before the end of the year is higher, and the interest rate cut may have to wait until 2025 for a suitable opportunity; ② A domestic interest rate cut may further increase short-term Exchange Rates pressure, and the probability of a short-term reserve requirement cut is greater than that of an interest rate cut. Recently, the Renminbi's exchange rate against the US dollar has declined, reflecting more of a passive depreciation nature.
The central bank today net withdrew 643.5 billion yuan from the open market, and the year-end funding situation will remain relatively loose.
1. It is believed in the industry that the central bank is currently inclined to "protect but not excessively loosen" the monetary policy, focusing on whether to initiate a Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) cut before and after the MLF renewal. 2. The central bank will strive to maintain reasonable and ample market liquidity, and the volatility of the funding situation at the end of the year will be significantly lower than in previous years.