Goldman Sachs 'Ten Questions' for Trump 2.0: Where is the USA economy and the Federal Reserve headed in 2025?
1. Analysts at Goldman Sachs emphasize that as we enter the new year, the fundamentals of the USA economy are expected to remain robust; 2. They point out that the uncertainties regarding policy changes and geopolitical risks during Trump's second term may impact the outlook.
China Manufacturing Activity Expands for Third Consecutive Month in December- PMI
National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: In December, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has been in the expansion Range for three consecutive months, and the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index has significantly rebounded.
On December 31, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and China Logistics and Purchasing Federation released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation.
National Statistics: December PMI is 50.1%, continuing to maintain expansion.
In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the manufacturing sector continues to expand; The Manufacturing PMI has remained in the expansion Range for three consecutive months, while the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index has significantly rebounded.
PBOC Sets USD/CNY Reference Rate at 7.1884 Vs. 7.1889 Previous
The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar is reported at 7.1884, up by 5 points.
On December 31, the central parity rate for the RMB against the USD reported 7.1884, an increase of 5 points. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 88.8%. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January next year is 88.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11.2%. By March next year, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 46.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 48.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%. Wells Fargo & Co predicts that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates once next year. Investors' year-end focus includes the outlook for the US economy and 202.
