As fears around Trump rise, the trends in Emerging Markets MMF and Gold diverge.
Amid expectations of Trump possibly returning to the White House, the 30-day correlation between Gold and the MSCI Emerging Markets MMF Index has dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years. Over the past three years, these two Assets have been positively correlated 86% of the time, but now they are experiencing a 30-day negative correlation, which has occurred for only the fifth time in three years.
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Will Gold continue to shine in 2025? A review from five key dimensions.
In 2024, there will be few types of investments that can outperform Gold, which is about to have its strongest year since 2010 and one of the largest annual increases in history. Many Gold bulls on Wall Street believe that the price of Gold is expected to rise further in 2025.
Gold prices have repeatedly reached historical highs, and gold companies are showing impressive performances while increasing reserves. The "long bull" trend still exists | Year-end review.
① This year's gold prices have repeatedly hit new highs, performing particularly impressively; ② Among A-share gold companies, SD GOLD, Zijin Mining Group, Shanjin International, and * Special Treat Zhongrun are actively increasing their reserves; ③ Many industry insiders believe that the trend of a "long bull" market for gold still exists; however, the risks of short-term fluctuations cannot be overlooked.
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What does the Federal Reserve's "Skip" mean for the market?
Citi Research found that during the period when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts, the U.S. stock market usually performs well, but the sustainability of the rise depends on whether economic weakness leads to a restart of policy easing; U.S. Treasury rates usually rise at the pause or end of the cycle; for the dollar, if the interest rate cuts are only paused, the dollar performs laterally, if it is the last interest rate cut, the dollar will rise; after the pause, regardless of whether the easing cycle continues, Gold prices usually rise.
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Morgan Stanley: The undervalued "Gold Triad" of China.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical risks, China gold will benefit from market risk aversion sentiment and be favored by Chinese investors, while expectations of yuan volatility also provide support for gold prices to rise. Zijin Mining Group, SD GOLD, and ZHAOJIN MINING are undervalued in the market, and their production is expected to grow significantly in the next five years. It is anticipated that gold prices will reach $2,850 per ounce in the second quarter of 2025.
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ING: Next year, the CSI Commodity Equity Index will experience a "Put year," while Gold will still shine!
① ING expects that the Global situation will put pressure on the Energy and CSI Commodity Equity Index markets, but the outlook for Gold remains bright. ② The report points out that Trump's tariff plans may disrupt the oil, Metal, and Agriculture markets; ③ However, ING predicts that the average Gold price will rise to $2,760 per ounce by 2025, primarily influenced by central bank purchases of Gold and the appeal of Gold as a safe-haven asset.
Will gold continue to shine next year? Goldman Sachs is listed as one of the “three major catalysts”: see you at $3,000!
① Goldman Sachs expects the price of gold to rise 11% to $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025; ② Goldman Sachs believes that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased gold purchases by central banks, and rising geopolitical uncertainty are the three major factors driving the price of gold higher.
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