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[Brokerage Focus] China's real estate sector may face downward pressure from July to August, according to CMB International.
Jin Wu News | CMB International stated that Guangzhou has further relaxed regulations allowing foreigners to purchase homes; The land auction market has become hot after canceling the price limit in high-energy-level cities, while low-energy-level cities are relatively weak, indicating that the market-oriented bidding mechanism will accelerate the balance of supply and demand. High-frequency data shows that the sales of new homes have fallen slightly since the peak in late June, while second-hand homes remain strong. From early July to now, the daily average transactions of new homes/second-hand homes have decreased by 21%/increased by 11% respectively compared to the daily averages in June. In terms of transaction observation in first-tier cities, the weekly transaction volume of new and second-hand homes in the 27th week has declined compared with the previous week. Compared with the weekly average transaction volume in the year, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have performed relatively stable.
GF Sec: Land Activation Fund Established, New Home Sales Turn Positive year-on-year in early July.
GF sec released research reports stating that the state-owned assets supervision and administration commission has set up a special fund for land consolidation with a total size of 30 billion yuan and requires central SOEs to report pilot projects to try to solve the problem of long-term high inventory in the real estate market. On the local policy side, this week still mainly focuses on relaxing housing provident fund policies and providing housing subsidies to boost demand, and various regions are still exploring new policies to stimulate demand.
[Brokerage Focus] Zhongyin International is optimistic about the real estate and property management sectors, pointing out that the stock prices in the sectors will maintain a repairing trend in the medium to long term.
Jingu Financial News | Zhongyin International said it is optimistic about the real estate and property management sectors. The bank sees Beijing lowering the down payment ratio by 10-15 percentage points and lowering the housing loan interest rate by 30-55 basis points. Consistent with the bank's previous expectations, the minimum down payment ratio and housing loan interest rate restrictions in Beijing have been lowered to the same level as Shanghai and Shenzhen. As for the purchase restriction policy, according to the bank's policy relaxation timetable, there is still some room for Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai. As of June 26th, looking at the average daily transaction area before and after the 517 new policy, the new house market in 30 cities and the second-hand house market in 17 cities have both increased by 25%, which may be stimulated by the new policy, and the concentration of the end of the half year on the internet.
htsc: The land market supply and demand continues to be weak, focusing on real estate companies with core urban resources.
The land market is still weakly running in the first half of 2024, and the trend of shrinking volume continues, while the previously maintained rising transaction average price also decreased year-on-year in the first half of the year.
Mainland real estate stocks fell across the board. Agile Group (03383) fell by 3.47%. From today on, personal mortgage loans for housing projects with a capped main structure will be strictly implemented.
Inside the mainland real estate sector, the decline continued. As of press time, Agile Group (03383) fell by 3.47%, CIFI Hold GP (00884) fell by 3.03%, China RES Land (01109) fell by 1.79%, Sunac (01918) and China Vanke (02202) followed suit. In terms of news, it has been reported that several commercial banks in Shenzhen have required that personal housing mortgage loans can only be lent after the main structure has been capped. In other words, banks will only issue personal housing mortgage loans for housing projects in which the main structure has already been topped off. The relevant regulations will be formally implemented from the 5th. Bank of China.
Major bank rating | CICC International Securities: High-quality state-owned real estate companies in mainland China resume growth in June, preferring China Overseas, Greentown China, and Poly Developments and Holdings Group.
According to a report by China International Capital Corporation, high-quality state-owned real estate developers in mainland China have resumed growth in June, with significant improvement in contract sales of major developers, averaging a 20% monthly increase. The improvement reflects seasonal factors and basic improvement. Poly Developments and Holdings Group, China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings, Greentown China, Agile International Holdings, Yuexiu Property and China Fortune Land Development Co Ltd all ended their downward trend in the past twelve months, with China Overseas Land & Investment recording a 40% year-on-year increase in contract sales in June. The data shows that both the first-hand and second-hand markets have improved, and the adjustment of housing prices has supported market recovery. The reduction in land supply has enabled the market to balance, and it is believed that the medium-term recovery is supported by improvement
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151369719 : why are the property stocks falling along with the broader market? Opportunity to take advantage of the down trend.