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Optimistic prospects for interest rate cuts have led to a general increase in major overseas asset classes such as US stocks, gold, silver, and crude oil. Weekly report on major overseas assets.
After the release of non-farm data for the week of July 1-5, the US stock and bond markets rose and the US dollar came under pressure. Upon realizing the 'data detail' that the data in the first two months before non-farm was cut by 0.11 million, US bonds sharply rebounded and the yield curve became steeper.
Gold and silver hit new one-month highs! Behind it is not only the boost of non-agricultural employment, but also the "big purchases" of the Reserve Bank of India.
The Non-Farm Payroll report released a significant signal of cooling in the US labor market, with expectations of a Fed interest rate cut rising and the US dollar under pressure. India's central bank gold reserves increased by over 9 tons in June, the highest level since July 2022.
Amidst the low battery prices, hedge funds quietly bought physical cobalt.
This year, the sales of electric autos have been weaker than expected and the cobalt market has experienced a record oversupply, causing spot cobalt prices to drop to a seven-year low. The cobalt futures price, which will be delivered in one year, is already 20% higher than the spot price. A significant spot discount creates opportunities for arbitrage.
The Fed's Ambivalence: What Investors Can Expect from Its Dovish Shift
While the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, recently released economic data such as PCE, CPI, and the unemployment rate suggest that inflation is trending in the right direction, leading the market to believe that a cycle of decreasing interest rates will begin soon. However, the debate continues; it's not about "whether or not," but rather "when and how" rate cuts will occur.
Gold Pushes Higher as Investors Expect Fed Will Start to Ease
Gold headed for a back-to-back weekly gain on expectations that the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates before year-end, with traders looking ahead to US payrolls data for the next batch of clues on the outlook.
From Bold to Boring
After a rollicking spring rally, gold has settled into a trading range that seems typical for a summertime slowdown. One indicator is now pointing toward a big surprise soon, however.
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