• Salmon Klein : what's going on today? why such a huge drop? no happy with Trump?

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• 10baggerbamm OP Salmon Klein : this is all interest rate related you've got interest rates selling off which means yields are going up and that's bad for everything that is interest rate sensitive so that's housing. even though this is not a housing ETF it's being lumped in with real estate

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• Salmon Klein 10baggerbamm OP : should I sell then? I am 10% down...my entry is 12.7

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• 10baggerbamm OP Salmon Klein : that's in drn? need to find how many shares do you have can you sell a covered call against the position

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• Mint candy : I have been reading your opinions about DRN, so I would like to ask if I can still hold on it?

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• 10baggerbamm OP : do you own it outright or do you have options that you're holding? if you bought call options the concern that I have is right now money is not buying the real estate sector it had a large move leading up to the first rate hike it was up like 15% for the quarter and this is a leveraged ETF so it had a significantly greater return. so if you're an options right now you've got money coming out of real estate and you have time gradually decaying on the option contracts.
  if you have the ETF that you own outright and your patient and you can hold till first quarter second quarter next year I still believe you're going to see high teens to a low 20 on it because at some point we're supposed to have two sequential rate cuts by the end of this year another quarter and a quarter assuming that the union strike for ports does not extend a long time because if it does inflation is going to spike and the FED will not cut rates this year they'll either only do one cut or they'll do no cuts.
  so this throws an X Factor of variable into the short-term movement of this ETF.

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• 10baggerbamm OP Mint candy : pt 2
  ultimately rate cuts will ensue and this strike in the ports will be resolved and at some point money is going to flow back into the ETF.
  I have call options on it and I get hit with a double kicking the balls on the way down right now because I'm in the money with my call options which means every down tick I lose value on the contract and I'm losing time value it decays.
  so if you hold it out right I believe you're going to be perfectly fine and I actually believe you can add more in here if you don't own it so if you never bought it you've gone from 14 to 1260 or wherever it is right now since the FED cut their rates over the past week and a half two weeks.
  so I think you can initiate a position in here you've got a little bit of downside the risk again is the Port strike and then it's the Israel I ran but if you're in the market those are risks that you have to assess based off of how much you want to hold and within what industry.
  so I hope this answered your question if you have additional ones please ask I know I can be very long winded in a response but I hope this addresses your question.

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• Mint candy 10baggerbamm OP : Thanks for the quick reply. Your guidance is always great. I will continue to follow you. I opened a position in DRN last month and will continue to hold it according to your advice. Thanks again

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• 10baggerbamm OP Mint candy : I'm literally looking at doing another option position going out to March of next year selling a deep in the money put and then using that premium to go out and buy a call so that my net cash outlay is not that much. I think there's Market risk right now again with what's going on Israel I ran there's going to be a retaliation there's going to be a market sell off we have risk of inflation with the Port strike this all falls into the market climbs a wall of worry.
  if you go back and you look at August 11th at Black Monday when the market tanked that was a buying opportunity when the Vix Spike that was a buying opportunity.
  there's a lot of concern with Iran that has to be resolved I don't believe China wants a nuclear war with anybody I think they're smart enough rational enough leaders in that country that want to win from an economic prosperity standpoint and they clearly understand that the shit they manufacture is bought by the United States and if the US stops buying they're fucked plain and simple.
  and I think Putin understands even though he's selling Iran weapons he doesn't want a nuclear war either because there are no winners there's no Genghis Khan that's going to conquer what's left.
  so we have a failure in the United States between Biden and Harris they're a complete fucking other train wreck they're not leaders their followers and their failures their teleprompter readers is what they are so somebody's running the country behind their back that's why we need Trump to stabilize the world again.
  he understands how to speak to other leaders face to face with respect and strength and together collectively the world prospers under Trump's leadership.
  so November 6th when Trump is announced the winner back the truck up and buy the shit out of this ETF and buy drip, and I'm going to have a whole host of other stocks and ETF to buy assuming Trump wins and I'll be putting that out before the election so everybody has plenty of time to prepare

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• Warren Buffed : This benefits from rate cut right? Cheaper loans?

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• 10baggerbamm OP Warren Buffed : it's not a matter of cheaper loans it's the real estate industry is the last man on the battlefield that has not rallied two multi-year highs or New Year highs.. the real estate industry has been kicked at a curb thrown out the baby with the bathwater pick a saying and it all commenced when interest rates started to rise several years ago. when you compound rising interest rates with covid where everybody left office buildings were they sat vacant where the Dynamics of working from home changed the need for these large corporations to rent commercial properties all of these stocks as a result were taken out behind the barn and beaten like a redheaded stepchild. fast forward several years many of these companies in this real estate investment trust owned the properties that are being used for data centers oh my God that's amazing that's what everybody wants is real estate that's prime real estate because that's where the future is. the balance of properties are in key cities that are the best cities in the country where real estate is highly sought after where properties are 95% leased and new leases are setting all-time highs again. so absolutely when interest rates fall people will look to invest in real estate because the ability for these properties to be refinanced is much easier number one number two they pay dividends and when these companies start generating profits again and huge profits they will generate they will spin off those profits in the form of much higher dividends so they will raise the dividends going forward and money chases yield in a declining rate economy so you have all of these factors of why this basket is going to go significantly higher

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• Warren Buffed 10baggerbamm OP : Whoa, very detailed analysis, need time to digest

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• 10baggerbamm OP Warren Buffed : okay how about this
  "yes"
  is that easier to understand?

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• Warren Buffed 10baggerbamm OP : Ahhh thats it

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• 10baggerbamm OP : another point of fact that is really never talked about has to deal with the fact that most real estate investment trusts by design kickoff a high dividend to their shareholders. and this obviously is done to minimize tax liability. what has happened with most real estate investment trust over the past several years especially since covid is they've cut their dividend significantly or eliminated it many of them have. now that there's a normalization taking place where companies are requiring people to come back to work in an office environment number one number two many of these properties are being repurposed and turned into other uses they're turned into Data centers things of that nature so the low rental rate of some of these properties are now fully rented or approaching 95% which is very profitable so where I'm going with this long twisted convoluted explanation
  .. you are going to see many of these real estate investment trust begin to raise their dividend every quarter because they're now generating profits again and when you are in a declining rate environment which is what we are approaching with the feds planning on cutting for about 240 basis points is what the estimate is so 2.4%. money is going to search for yield and historically when properties are rented real estate investment trusts are a very good source of dividends. so right now nobody is talking about this there's not a single person online none of the bobbleheads on tv nobody but I guarantee you they will in short order.
  and remember where you heard it first.

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• Turnbuckle : T Y

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• 10baggerbamm OP Turnbuckle : this is where it's going you see that white line I'm banking on it and once it comes close to this it's going to be much much higher but this is the minimum that I see in 2025.

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