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Drawing lessons from history, is this wave of AI capital expenditure a boom or a bubble?
Deutsche Bank believes that historically, capital expenditure booms often end in collapse. The key factor that distinguishes prosperity from recession is the level of leverage (debt) involved. Historical experience shows that credit-intensive capital expenditure booms often lead to more severe recessions. Considering the current AI spending boom, which is primarily funded by the profits of large Technology companies in the USA rather than debt, this somewhat reduces systemic risk. However, the ratio of USA household net Assets to disposable income is at a historical high, and the concentration of the stock market has also hit a new high, which increases the systemic risk brought about by the transmission of wealth effects.
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