Estee Lauder Stock Discussion

Adriano Gouveia : I think it is a buy.

pootpoot : their earnings are declining at a rapid speed. only buy when it shows a change of trend.

HelloMooMoo : You mean good buy now?

韭菜变主力 OP HelloMooMoo : Buy at low 60s

韭菜变主力 OP HelloMooMoo : After looking at the earnings reports in recent years, I don’t think it’s a good idea to buy the dip. They have not been making profit in Americas, and the only profit engine of mainland China and Asia travel retail is killed. They are making EPS 0.2-0.35 (non-gaap adjusted) in the upcoming holiday quarter, and it’s more difficult to make profit in ohter quarters. The current market expectation of them making EPS 1.5-2 (with flattish sales in other quarters) in FY 25 appears to be optimistic. It’s likely they will be making EPS ~1.0 in FY 25. Anyway, the EPS is extremely volatile. It’s hard to evaluate the correct share price.

NoFear : Korea skincare and cosmetics has outperformed US skincare over the years. Affordable and good. EL have to come out with a competitive product before stock price can recover. If not it’s just another Nokia, Yahoo, Intel. Long term down trend

HelloMooMoo 韭菜变主力 OP : I see, thanks sharing this!

helloworldhelloworld : Can you apply to be part of their management team? Talking is free.

helloworldhelloworld : 1. Cut Cost (SG&A) etc for the company
2. Create a marketing campaign to attract more young users for their makeup line
3. Create a budget makeup line under a different brand to cater to cost conscious users

韭菜变主力 OP helloworldhelloworld : I was just referring to the upside potential of the stock price. They can also quit certain part of unprofitable businesses.

helloworldhelloworld : Can be held on for the long term as long as company can cut cost. Revenue is good but the net income is poor, signifying the need for better management.