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Zai Lab Analyst Ratings
After the new round of LPR cuts, the mortgage interest rates in many places are entering the '2' era. The minimum first-home commercial mortgage rates in Guangzhou and Dongguan will be lower than the provident fund interest rates.
①After the new round of LPR reduction, mortgage rates of many local commercial banks nationwide will enter the "2" era, and mortgage rates in places such as Guangzhou and Dongguan may be lower than provident fund loans. ②Many credit professionals from commercial banks in Guangzhou have responded that they are aware of the LPR adjustment and are waiting for the new mortgage rate adjustment notice from the bank. ③Insiders point out that there is also room for adjustment in the provident fund loan interest rates in the future; there is further room for LPR to be adjusted downward.
The 5-year LPR has dropped sharply by 60 basis points this year, refreshing the historical lowest record, and the real estate market is expected to welcome a "warm winter".
1. The central bank has lowered the loan market benchmark interest rate LPR for the third time this year, with a cumulative reduction of 60 basis points in the 5-year LPR, setting a new historical record. 2. "Interest rate cuts are conducive to stabilizing expectations in the real estate market. It is expected that some cities, especially first-tier and second-tier cities, will gradually stabilize, with the market quickly stabilizing, becoming a trend. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2024, a warm winter market will appear in certain market ranges."
In October, the LPR was lowered, and the LPR for more than 5 years has cumulatively decreased by 60 basis points this year. Existing house loan residents may save more than 0.24 million in interest.
①After the downward adjustment of the October LPR quote, it will drive a greater reduction in corporate and residential loan interest rates, thereby stimulating financing demand for the real economy, promoting consumption, expanding investment, boosting economic growth momentum, and driving a moderate rebound in commodity prices. ②Looking ahead, focusing on stabilizing and revitalizing the real estate market to boost economic growth momentum, drive a moderate rebound in commodity prices, there may still be some room for a downward adjustment of the LPR quote in 2025.
In September, the month-on-month decline in housing prices in 70 cities narrowed, enhancing the signal of real estate "stabilizing after the decline".
①In September, the selling prices of residential commodities are still in a downward trend, however, the downward trend has slightly slowed down, showing initial signs of improvement; ②Analysts predict that in October, the price declines of new and second-hand houses in 70 cities will further narrow.
Policy is bullish, why did the real estate sector fall instead? Public interpretation of the meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other five departments.
Why did the real estate sector fall instead under the bullish news? Public discussion on the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's new policy of 'two increases'. Institutions pointed out that the combination of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development conference and fiscalized debt policies reflects the strength of the policies.