Weekly outlook for exchange rates: The possibility of the dollar struggling, with the potential for a substantial additional rate cut by the US remaining.
【This week's overview】 ■ Yen selling shrinks on speculation of BOJ policy normalization The dollar fell this week against the yen. Early expectations of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan diminished, with risk-on dollar buying and yen selling becoming increasingly active towards the end of the week. As Toshimitsu Motegi, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, who advocates for monetary easing and active fiscal measures, took the top spot in the first round of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election held on September 27, the Nikkei average rose and the dollar-yen pair was bought up to the upper 146 yen level. However, in the runoff election for monetary easing.
Three key points to watch in next week's market: US employment statistics, BOJ Tankan survey, US ISM manufacturing index.
■Stock Market Outlook Forecast Range: Upper limit 38,000 yen - Lower limit 37,000 yen. The Nikkei average showed a strong upward trend for the second consecutive day, breaking through the 75-day moving average line (75MA: 38,293 yen) level for the first time in about two months. However, after the market close on the 27th at around 3:20 p.m., when it was reported that Shigeru Ishiba was chosen as the 28th President of the Liberal Democratic Party, the dollar-yen fell to the 142 yen range in the foreign exchange market. In the evening session of the Osaka Securities Exchange, the Nikkei 225 futures closed 2,410 yen lower at 37,440 yen compared to the daytime closing price.
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【Today's yen exchange rate outlook】The dollar-yen is mainly expected to hover around the 144 yen level, with the dollar potentially showing firm movements due to the rise in US interest rates.
[Foreign Exchange Market Opening Comments] On the 25th, the dollar-yen rose from 142.91 yen to 143.91 yen in the Tokyo market. In the European and American markets, after being sold to 143.86 yen, it rose to 144.84 yen and closed at 144.79 yen. Will the dollar-yen mainly fluctuate in the 144 yen range today on the 26th? Due to the rise in US long-term interest rates, the dollar may show a firm trend. According to reports, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on September 25th, forecasted a 3.1% world economic growth in 2024.
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