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Guangda Futures: The overseas market has weakly rebounded for three consecutive days, paying attention to the support situation near recent lows.
On November 28, the gold price on comex dropped by 0.12% to $2661.50 per ounce, while the main contract for Shanghai gold rose by 0.04% to 613.92 yuan per gram. Geopolitically, the Israeli military stated that several suspects were found in multiple areas in southern Lebanon, some of whom were carrying vehicles, which constitutes a violation. Regarding interest rate cuts, the latest CME "Fed Watch" data show that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December is 33.7%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 66.3%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January next year is 25.8%, with a cumulative cut of 2.
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Everbright Futures: The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December is low. Pay attention to the development of geopolitical situations.
Last week, the price of gold on comex rose by 6.85% to $2743.20 per ounce, while the price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose by 5.46% to 627.88 yuan per gram. Geopolitically, the commander of the Russian missile forces stated that the new missiles could target the entire europe. As for interest rate cuts, the Fed announced details of the upcoming framework review, which will not include the 2% inflation target. The focus will be on global strategy statements and communication tools. The review will include holding open 'Fed Listens' events nationwide, and discussions among policymakers will begin at the January meeting. The latest data from cme's 'Fed Watch' shows.
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Guangda Futures: Escalation of Russia-Ukraine situation boosts gold prices due to safe-haven properties.
On November 20, comex gold fluctuated after falling first, closing at $2654.1 per ounce, up 0.88%. Domestic SHFE gold night trading fluctuated and rose, closing at 615.24 yuan/gram, up 0.67%. Geopolitically, British media reported that Ukraine used the "Shadow of the Storm" cruise missile provided by the united kingdom to attack targets within Russia for the first time, boosting safe-haven assets, gold rose for three consecutive days and hit a one-week high. However, Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish statements one after another. Federal Reserve hawkish board member Bauman said that inflation progress seems to have stalled, leaning towards cautiously proceeding with rate cuts. Federal Reserve board member Cook believes that if
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IMF lowers south korea's economic growth forecast for the next two years.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday downgraded its expectations for south korea's economic growth, pointing out that this export-dependent country faces increasing adverse factors, echoing growing concerns among economists. Rahul Anand, head of the IMF delegation in south korea, announced in Seoul that the organization has cut its forecast for south korea's economic growth in 2025 from 2.2% to 2%. He stated, 'The uncertainty of the outlook remains high, and the risks are tilted to the downside.' The IMF also lowered its 2024 economic growth expectation for south korea from 2.5% to 2.2%. Anand was in Seoul.
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Guangda Futures: Geopolitical tensions causing disturbances, pay attention to whether gold is changing its style.
Last week, the price of gold on comex fell by 4.62% to $2567.40 per ounce, while the night trading of gold on the main board in Shanghai fell by 3.60% to 593.30 yuan per gram. In terms of geopolitics, the USA has allowed Ukraine to use weapons to attack targets within Russia, beware of the escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions before Trump took office. On the interest rate front, Guerspé, the Federal Reserve, said: "We will consider interest rate cuts based on the Fed's September dot plot. Personally, I prefer not to move directly towards the neutral rate. When approaching the neutral rate, we should slow down our pace since the neutral rate is significantly lower than the current level of the Federal Reserve's policy rate."
U.S. stock market anomaly | Prison concept stocks rise, with the geo group inc (GEO.US) up more than 4%.
As of the time of writing, the stock has risen by over 4%, trading at 26.56 dollars.
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