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Everbright Futures: Gold prices continue to fluctuate, focusing on this week's US PMI data.
On January 1, the domestic and foreign Gold Futures markets are closed. The gold market in 2024 performed impressively, with a cumulative increase of over 26% for the year, marking the largest annual increase since 2010. However, the performance of overseas financial and Forex markets was subdued before New Year's Day, with the dollar fluctuating at a high level, and gold prices moving within a narrow range without further significant gains. With the Federal Reserve's last interest rate cut of the year concluded, rising inflation expectations, and uncertainties surrounding the policies following Trump's inauguration, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the first half of next year, making it difficult for gold prices to receive significant upward momentum. Therefore, the market's focus moving forward is on what happens once Trump officially takes office.
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Everbright Futures: A ceasefire agreement in Gaza may be reached. Pay attention to the monetary policy decision results in December.
On December 17, the COMEX Gold price fell by 0.24% to $2663.50 per ounce, while the main continuous contract for Shanghai Gold dropped by 0.30% to 618.94 yuan per gram. Regarding geopolitical developments, it has been reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading to Cairo for ceasefire talks on Gaza, and a ceasefire agreement is expected to be signed in the coming days. In terms of interest rate cuts, the latest CME "Fed Watch" data shows that the probability of maintaining the current rate in December is 4.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 95.4%; for January of next year, the probability of keeping the current rate unchanged is 3.8%, with a cumulative reduction of 25 basis points.
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Everbright Futures: Under the expectation of "hawkish interest rate cuts," Gold is experiencing high-level fluctuations.
On December 16, COMEX Gold first rose then fell, closing as a doji at $2670.2 per ounce, down 0.21%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened high and closed low, ending at 620.56 yuan per gram, up 0.06%. According to the latest data released by India's Ministry of Commerce on Monday, India's trade deficit widened to $37.8 billion in November this year, setting a new historical high. The surge in India's import demand and gold imports are the main factors driving this phenomenon. It is expected that under the circumstances of geopolitical risks and changes in trade patterns, gold prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. The New York Federal Reserve's manufacturing index in the USA for December reached 20.
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