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Goldman Sachs Newsroom
Wall Street's big banks all change their tune, JPMorgan and Citigroup expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice by 50 basis points this year.
Given the latest data showing a cooling labor market, expectations of a period of aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve continue to rise on Wall Street. After Friday's data showed a further rise in the U.S. unemployment rate in July, economists at Bank of America, Barclays, Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan adjusted their rate path forecasts, calling for earlier, larger or more rate cuts. Citi economists expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points at the September and November meetings, and by 25 basis points at the December meeting. Previously, they had expected the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of these meetings.
Summary of the view: Federal Reserve officials state that they will not overreact to monthly data and major banks expect two 50 basis point interest rate cuts.
Following weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the Fed wouldn't overreact to single-month data. Major Wall Street banks JP Morgan and Citi have changed their opinions and now expect the Fed to cut rates 50 basis points twice this year. However, observers argue that the Fed won't agree to a 50 basis point cut. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed won't overreact to any single data report and will receive a large amount of economic data before the next meeting.
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Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the third time this year.
After the weak non-farm payroll data in July was announced, Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year. The company states that if the non-farm payroll report in August is also weak, a 50 basis point rate cut may be possible. On Friday, the data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the US increased by only 0.114 million people, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, which may exacerbate concerns about the deterioration of the job market and may cause the economy to fall into recession. After an increase of 0.3% in June, average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% last month. In the 12 months ending July, wages increased
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