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The USD is heading towards its best annual performance in nine years, supported by the USA economy and the threat of tariffs from Donald Trump.
The dollar is heading towards its best annual performance in nearly a decade, as the strengthening USA economy has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, and the threat of strict tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump has supported bullish bets on the dollar. The Bloomberg USD Index has risen more than 7% year-to-date, marking its best performance since 2015. As other central banks have to step in to support their own economies, all developed country currencies have weakened against the dollar. "This year, the dollar's main pillar is a strong economy," said Barclays Forex strategist Skylar Montgomery Koning, "This strength means the Federal Reserve is entering a range.
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Overview of views: Wall Street predicts a decline in US bond yields, and the positions of Federal Reserve voters are expected to become more divided.
Wall Street's major firms predict that US Treasury yields will decline next year. The composition of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is set to change, and the policy stance is expected to become more polarized between dovish and hawkish. Wall Street follows the guidance from the Federal Reserve, predicting that even if Trump's trade and tax policies pose risks to the bond market, short-term US Treasury yields will still decline by 2025. Strategists' predictions are largely consistent, believing that the 2-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, will fall. They also expect that yields will decrease by at least 0.5 percentage points from current levels in 12 months.
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The new lineup of FOMC voting members for the Federal Reserve in the new year indicates that policy stances are likely to become more polarized between dovish and hawkish.
The composition of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee is about to change, and at the same time, renewed concerns about inflation are making the central bank's decisions more complex. Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points and indicated that it would only lower rates twice in 2025. Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that the central bank is entering a new phase, where future rate cuts may be more gradual and dependent on whether inflation decreases. "I think this sends a fairly strong signal that a rate cut is unlikely in January," said Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, "beyond that, the data is the real driving factor."
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