Since 1928, the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ has averaged a 1.1% decline in September. This year, with an election looming and the prospect of a rate-cutting cycle, investor sentiment is more nervous.
The "September effect" appears to be resurfacing, with the S&P 500 down 3.14% month-to-date as of Monday's close, now in the second week of September.
Last week, we published "Wall Street is Bracing for September Curse Again. What's New and How to Tackle It," outlini...

Upgrades
• $BorgWarner (BWA.US)$ : Deutsche Bank Upgrades to Buy from Hold - PT $48 (from $43)
• $Expensify (EXFY.US)$ : BofA Securities Upgrades to Buy from Neutral - PT $25 (from $20)
• $Grab Holdings (GRAB.US)$ : JPMorgan Upgrades to Overweight from Neutral - PT $3
• $Houlihan Lokey (HLI.US)$ : Morgan Stanley Upgrades to Equalweight from Underweight - PT $82 (from $95)
• $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ : Berenberg Upgrades to Hold from Sell - PT ...

$Houlihan Lokey (HLI.US)$ Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 95.39.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 94.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.084% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.597% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.123% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 12 trading bars; half occur within 31 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).