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2-year Treasury Yield Slides as Investors Assess Interest Rate Outlook
Steepening of U.S. Treasury Curve Could Stall in Coming Days -- Market Talk
Technology stocks led the S&P to four consecutive gains, Oracle reached a new high after hours, the US dollar and US bonds fell, gold hit a new high, and commodities rose.
In August, the PPI in the United States showed a cooling down of inflation, and the market slightly raised its bets on the Fed's aggressive interest rate cuts. US stocks rose together, with Nvidia up nearly 2%, while NIO Inc and XPeng fell more than 5%. The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time this year, but maintained a restrictive policy. European bonds fell, and the euro rebounded from its four-week low. Commodities rose across the board, with US oil briefly rising by 3.7%, gold reaching a new high with a nearly 2% increase, palladium rising by over 4%, and copper experiencing its largest two-month increase.
What signal does the "bizarre" volatility of U.S. bond yields release? Economists: The Fed's policy narrative has "no anchor".
Economist Mohamed El-Erian said that on Wednesday, the two-year US Treasury yield fluctuated significantly, highlighting the lack of a firm narrative on the trajectory of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy guidance.
The Fed's signal suggests a 25 basis point rate cut next week. What are the expectations for the remaining two meetings this year?
Given the latest US core inflation exceeding expectations, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut next week has significantly decreased. Timothy Law emphasized that in addition to paying attention to the extent of the rate cut next week, we should also note Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's view on the health of the economy. The latest expectations show that the probability of a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November is close, and the probability of a total rate cut of at least 100 basis points this year exceeds 80%.
US stocks made a big turnaround, but has the danger been averted? In addition to the September 'curse,' we also need to beware of October panic.
This old problem can be traced back to the 19th century, when the usa was in an agricultural financing cycle, and the dollar lacked elasticity, making late summer and early autumn a particularly unstable period in the financial market. Since then, the Federal Reserve was established, making the market more stable, but investors' habit of reducing risk in late summer and early autumn makes it more likely for the US stock market to be weak in September and October.