Lower U.S. Borrowing Helps Treasurys, but Bunds Still Outpeform
Expectations of a Fed interest rate cut are getting stronger! US bonds continue to strengthen and are set to experience the longest consecutive monthly increase in three years.
US bond indicators will rise for the third consecutive month in July, the longest consecutive rise since 2021. Market pricing shows that investors are ready for a Fed rate cut in September, and the question now is whether there will be more cuts. Blackrock predicts that there may be three rate cuts this year.
As the interest rate cut approaches, the US has a reserve of 6 trillion dollars in ammunition, but the biggest beneficiary may not be the US stock market.
The loose interest rate cycle in the United States is about to begin, and some investors believe that it will cause funds to flow from money market funds (MMFs) to US stocks, providing support for stock market growth. However, UBS Group pointed out that historical data shows that this may not be the case.
The longest consecutive increase in three years! The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve ignited the US bond market, and investors are facing a crucial decision week!
The continuous rise in US bond prices suggests the possibility of achieving a third consecutive month of growth, which will be the longest lasting uptrend in three years.
Will the European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected in September? Two major data releases this week will provide the first clues.
A series of economic data to be released this week in the eurozone will provide key information for the European Central Bank to determine whether to resume rate cuts in September.
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Yellen denies "manipulating" the US bond market by relaxing financial conditions to assist in the election.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen firmly denied economist Nouriel Roubini's allegations that the Treasury Department is manipulating the issuance of government bonds to lower the actual cost of borrowing for the entire economy.
Vanguard Spotlights Opportunities in the Bond Market as Rates Are Expected to Decline
Yield Curve Between 2s/10s Comes to Closest Level of Becoming Un-inverted in 9 Months
Powell Put at Play: Rotation, Yen and Treasuries
Term Premium on U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Looks Low -- Market Talk
Price-Rigid Buyers Keep U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Flat For Now -- Market Talk
Expectations of a Fed rate cut are at an unprecedented high! Record demand for the sale of two-year US bonds.
Investors have flocked to the monthly two-year treasury bond issuance from the US Treasury Department, which strongly demonstrates investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts beginning this year.
US Dollar Gains Restricted by Falling Treasury Yields
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Wolfe Research Suggests the 2s/10s Yield Curve Wants to Breakout
Bank of America: Everyone believes in a rate cut and a trade with Trump, so it's time to "buy rumors, sell news".
Bank of America's Chief Strategist Michael Hartnett believes that market risk appetite is rotating, rather than receding, and expects funds to flow from the US dollar to gold, from large-cap stocks to small-cap stocks, and the market will shift from momentum trading to volatility trading.
What to Expect in the Week Ahead (Google and Tesla Earnings; GDP and PCE Data)
Won't Get Fooled Again - Fed Wants Inflation to Cool Further Before Cutting Interest Rates