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701 funds join in! In the second quarter, hedge funds continue to bet on bitcoin etfs, with Millennium, Capula, and Point72 all holding positions.
Bitcoin prices fell nearly 13% in the second quarter, and holding documents showed that the number of funds holding Bitcoin spot ETFs increased by 701. Millennium reduced its holdings of this type of ETF position in the second quarter, but still held at least five ETFs, and was the largest holder of most ETFs, including BlackRock ETF IBIT.
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74283803 : The constituent stocks of the index are constantly changing. Bitcoin certainly cannot be positively correlated with the index in the long term. Logically, the market value of Bitcoin is expanding, and there is definitely an upper limit on the market value of a single stock, Apple, Nvidia, etc.
Preserving the value of Bitcoin is based on the logic that inflation causes fiat currency to depreciate. Falling inflation and cutting interest rates are definitely bad for Bitcoin. (Interest rate cuts release liquidity, not enough to have a substantial spillover effect on Bitcoin)
Also, the phase directly related to the index is definitely a time when the world's liquidity is rampant.
MicroStrategy, if extreme circumstances occur in the future, may it face the risk of bankruptcy? Once Bitcoin breaks the rules, the leverage gets bigger and bigger!
MicroStrategy's investment strategy is only directly related to Bitcoin's rise and continues to strengthen. Once reversed, it is not impossible for bankruptcy.
Some companies that learn micro-strategies will definitely have a greater chance of going bankrupt, and the market will verify it.
This strategy cannot withstand crises like 2000 and 2008.
Why did the boss start dumping microstrategy stocks at 1,800 yuan and switch the hundreds of millions of dollars he realized into bitcoins under his own name (now more than 1 billion under his personal name)? He knows in his heart where the risk of microstrategy lies.
74283803 : A friend, correlation analysis, Bitcoin has a stronger correlation (long-term) with Russell 2000. From this point of view, the results can be analyzed.
Bitcoin's rise in the first quarter of this year was more of a stimulus from spot ETFs or brought in incremental capital.
In a way, Bitcoin reached a record high this year, cutting the leek of spot ETFs (new money).
This guess will take time to verify.
The macro situation determines the future of Bitcoin.
Interest rates on 2-10-year treasury bonds have been inverted. After more than 2 years, they will have to be corrected sooner or later (this can only refer to 1980; the rest of the period is short).
Sooner or later, Japan will return to monetary policy, even though Japan is not an independent country.
Next weekend, meet to hear what central bank governors say (especially from Japan; although the results are known, how to explain is the key).