6500 points! Wall Street's 'former big short' firmly calls the US stock market, and provides these investment recommendations.
① Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, Michael Wilson, set the target price for the S&P 500 index at 6,500 points by the end of 2025, an increase of 10.3% from the current level. ② Wilson believes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improving economic growth, and the possible deregulation by the Trump administration create a call for investors to be bullish on the stock market.
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As US bond yields soar, how much longer can the US stock market party last?
Currently, there are no signs of a bear market in the US stock market, but the surging yields on US Treasury bonds may become a turning point for the situation. Bank of America Merrill Lynch states that when the 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5%, investors tend to shift from the stock market to the bond market, limiting the rise of US stocks. This yield has climbed by 80 basis points since mid-September, although the bank indicates that the current interest rate risk is manageable.
The second largest net inflow of capital since 2008! Investors go all in on US stocks
According to EPFR data, in the week up to last Wednesday, US stock etf and mutual funds attracted nearly 56 billion dollars in inflow, marking the second largest weekly inflow record since 2008. These funds have attracted inflow for seven consecutive months, marking the longest duration since 2021.
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Late night broadcasting! Powell: The economy is strong, the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut interest rates, there is time to understand the impact of Trump's policies.
Powell stated that labor market indicators are returning to more normal levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's full employment target; inflation will continue to decline towards the target of 2%, although there may be occasional fluctuations; the interest rate path is not preset and depends on data and economic outlook. If the data tells us to slow down rate cuts, slowing down is the wise choice; Congress generally believes that the Fed's independence is very important, concluding prematurely on the policies of the Trump administration. The Fed will act cautiously before policy is more certain; the impact of AI may be later and greater than we expect.
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Is it stable? The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates next month has reached 80%.
① Last night, the completely market-expected usa October CPI data did not cause much of a stir in the market; ② However, the data performance still boosted market confidence in the Fed's interest rate cut next month, and stimulated a rebound in short-term US government bonds.
Is the continued interest rate cut stable in December? Federal Reserve officials say inflation is moving in the right direction.
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari expressed confidence in the direction of inflation shortly after the CPI was announced, saying that it is moving in the right direction and that more time is needed to analyze the data. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan stated that more rate cuts are likely in the future, but it is best to proceed with caution due to the risks of inflation caused by demand and geopolitical factors. It is said that she prefers to slow down rate cuts sooner rather than later. St. Louis Federal Reserve President Mester mentioned that if inflation continues to decline, rate cuts should be gradual, and monetary policy should remain "slightly restrictive." Kansas City Federal Reserve President Schmid stated that it is uncertain how much rate cuts will be needed in the future.
USA Stock Market Preview | All three equity index futures fell together, with the US October CPI released tonight.
On November 13th (Wednesday) pre-market trading, the three major US equity index futures all fell.
Trillion dollars!This year, global etf set a record for attracting funds.
As of October 31, the net inflow of funds into global etf this year has reached 1.4 trillion USD, exceeding the record of 1.33 trillion for the entire year of 2021. Demand for fixed income, csi commodity equity index, and stocks etfs is booming, with an inflow of 11.7 billion USD into china stocks etf in October (etfs listed overseas in china), more than double the peak in June 2022.
Can the Federal Reserve cut interest rates next month? The crucial test is coming tonight.
As the first major data after the US presidential election, the US October CPI report, which will be released at 21:30 on Wednesday Beijing time, is likely to have a crucial impact on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve; This has also prompted some Wall Street insiders to ponder whether the next market trade theme will gradually shift from the glamorous 'Trump trade' of the past week to the interest rate perspective surrounding the Federal Reserve rate cut process...