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ING Groep Newsroom
Institutions: Inflation in the eurozone may decline next year.
ING economist Bert Colijn wrote in a report that due to weak demand, inflation in the eurozone may decline next year. In November, consumer prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding the European Central Bank's target. However, core inflation (excluding volatile energy prices) remains stable, and with weakening demand in the 20 member currency union, it is expected to decline in the coming months, Colijn stated. 'The labor market is softening, and we expect wage growth to slow next year.'
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Analyst: Trump's tariff plan could cost every American consumer up to $2400 per year.
ING's James Knightley stated in a report that if elected president, Donald Trump's proposed tariff plan could increase inflation and result in each American consumer losing up to $2400 per year. Trump announced a more specific tariff plan today. Knightley previously mentioned that the increase in cost of goods, coupled with labor restrictions from the proposed immigration policy, could lead to a one percentage point rise in the US inflation rate. While tariffs can generate significant revenue, he added, the broader economic impacts and the consequent
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ing groep: Inflation in the service industry remains high, the central bank of the united kingdom will continue to cut interest rates.
Service sector inflation is expected to rebound by about 5% before entering winter, while the overall CPI in January may approach 3%. This reduces the likelihood of a rate cut in December, but in spring, the ing groep believes that the Bank of England is still very likely to accelerate its easing cycle. In October, the service sector inflation in the united kingdom was slightly higher than the general expectations of economists, but 5% was just slightly higher than in September, which is in line with the Bank of England's forecast. However, interestingly, when delving into the details, it is found that the recent stickiness largely lies within categories that the central bank seems to consider less important / less indicative of "persisting" inflation. For example, rent, in October.
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Oppenheimer: This momentum indicator indicates that the U.S. stock market's upward trend will continue into next year.
According to Oppenheimer's data, the Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that the overall US stock market will not peak until 2025.
This Momentum Indicator Says the S&P Won't Peak Until Next Year
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Institutions: It is expected that the Bank of England will start to accelerate its pace of interest rate cuts in the spring of next year.
James Smith of ING believes that despite a significant increase in government budget last week, the Bank of England will not change its future interest rate cut stance. In a report, he stated that it seems unlikely to cut interest rates in December, and only in the spring will the pace of rate cuts accelerate. Smith said: "Previously we thought the Bank of England would accelerate the pace of rate cuts after today, but the uncertainty caused by the fiscal budget has changed our minds." However, he believes that the overall message conveyed by the Bank of England today is: although the fiscal budget will have some impact, it is just one of many factors currently affecting the inflation outlook.
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