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Another U.S. stock market bear has "surrendered"! Rosenberg: Extreme stock market valuations may be reasonable.
① Renowned usa economist David Rosenberg has changed his long-standing bearish stance, stating that the ai-driven technology boom has led him to reassess the us stock market; ② Rosenberg indicated that if ai unleashes a wave of productivity, extreme valuations might make sense; ③ Rosenberg mentioned that despite the possibility of a bubble, it may not manifest in the coming years, and he remains open to the idea that the bull market could 'go further.'
Is this time really different? Another well-known "U.S. stock bear" has apologized.
Top Wall Street economist Rosenberg is no longer bearish on U.S. stocks, but he still expects a correction of 5-10%. Rosenberg stated that he previously underestimated ai, and the market currently has high expectations for AI; only when these high expectations are proven to be excessive will the stock market enter a bear market.
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Investors need to closely monitor the release of November CPI this Wednesday, which could be a "black swan" event that disrupts market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Analysts suggest that if the CPI shows no significant increase in U.S. inflation, then a rate cut in December is highly likely. However, futures pricing indicates that the Fed may pause rate cuts at the January meeting next year.
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Bank of America Hartnett: The bubble in U.S. stocks and digital currency is intensifying.
Hartnett stated that the s&p 500 index and bitcoin have reached 6100 points and 100,000 dollars per ounce, respectively, indicating that a bubble has begun to form. If the s&p rises further to 6666 points (about a 10% increase from the current level), then the risk of an "overshoot" in the US stock market in early 2025 is very high.
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After the non-farm payroll report was released, the FOMC members stepped in to "manage expectations": the Federal Reserve is at or near a point of slowing down interest rate cuts.
In 2024, FOMC voting member Harker stated that the Federal Reserve is "at or near" the point of slowing down interest rate cuts; Federal Reserve hawkish official and board member Bowman, who has permanent voting rights during her term, indicated that progress on inflation seems to have stagnated and still believes that inflation is more concerning than the labor market.
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