Major bank rating丨BOCOM INTL: It is expected that the revenue growth Range of mainland e-commerce platforms will be between 8% and 14% this year.
BOCOM INTL published a report indicating that yesterday the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance released the "Notice on Implementing Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Replacement Policies by 2025", expanding the 8 categories of household appliances in the consumer goods market for 2024 to 12 categories. In the first quarter of this year, according to the press conference, considering the consumer demand during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, a subsidy fund of 81 billion yuan for old-for-new consumer goods has already been allocated. Compared to last year's 50 billion yuan/20% subsidy ratio for household appliances, it is expected that the first quarter will drive the sales of household appliances, digital products, and other categories to exceed 150 billion yuan, compared to the retail sales of communication equipment in the first quarter of 2024.
BOCOM INTL: The continuation of national subsidies may drive steady growth in GMV for e-commerce platforms, with revenue growth expected in the Range of 8-14% by 2025.
BOCOM INTL currently predicts that Alibaba/JD.com e-commerce GMV will increase by approximately 6%/8% year-on-year.
[Brokerage Focus] BOCOM INTL expects the revenue growth Range of e-commerce platforms to be between 8-14% in 2025.
Jinwu Financial News | BOCOM INTL stated that on January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice regarding the "Implementation of Large-Scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Product Replacement Policies by 2025". This expands the 8 major categories of consumer electronics in the 2024 consumer goods market to 12 categories and implements a 15% subsidy for mobile digital products. The bank indicated that the press conference introduced the consideration of consumption demand during the New Year and Spring Festival, and has already allocated 81 billion yuan for the consumer product replacement subsidy. The bank expects that in the first quarter, this could drive sales of home appliances and digital products to exceed 150 billion yuan, estimating that the subsidy will lead to approximately 31 billion yuan in sales on Tmall and JD.com for home appliances and digital products respectively.
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Jingwu Financial News | Citigroup's Research Reports indicate that JD.com (09618) had a Net income of 28.22 billion yuan in 2022, with a diluted EPS of 17.744 yuan, an EPS growth rate of 64.7%; in 2023, the Net income is projected to be 35.2 billion yuan, with an EPS of 22.205 yuan, a growth rate of 25.1%; for 2024, the expected Net income is 44.242 billion yuan, with an EPS of 28.785 yuan, a growth rate of 29.6%; for 2025, the expected Net income is 47.283 billion yuan, with an EPS of 31.205 yuan, a growth rate of 8.4%;
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Citibank believes that JD.com’s early entry into the trade-in program should support GMV and revenue growth exceeding expectations in the first half of this year.
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