Interbank certificate of deposit quotas are in urgent need! Some banks are already below 5%, and the situation may improve in the fourth quarter.
①The balance of negotiable certificates of deposit in the six major state-owned banks accounts for 82.04% of the 2024 record amount, while the balance of negotiable certificates of deposit in joint stock banks accounts for 68.75% of the 2024 record amount. ②The supply of government bonds in the fourth quarter will significantly decrease compared to the third quarter, and the scale of interbank certificates of deposit maturing will also decrease significantly.
Central Bank responds to "Switching Mortgages", stating that the initial phase will start from this bank. Industry insiders expect new mortgages to replace existing ones, with limited impact on the existing market.
The emphasis on "initially implementing mortgage transfers within the bank" is mainly because the existing housing loans are still high-yield, low-risk quality assets for banks. Allowing inter-bank mortgage transfers will intensify competition among banks, which is not conducive to the stability of the mortgage market. Banks are expected to negotiate with customers, and both parties will sign a new mortgage contract to replace the original one.
Existing home loan interest rates are about to be lowered by 50 basis points! Industry insiders: It can effectively curb the trend of early repayment, and deposit interest rates will be further reduced under the pressure of interest rate differentials.
1. The central bank announced that it will guide commercial banks to reduce existing mortgage rates to be close to the rates of new mortgages, with an average reduction of about 0.5 percentage points. 2. It is expected that the loan prime rate (LPR) and deposit rates will symmetrically decrease.
Major announcements on the real estate market and stock market were made by one line, one bureau, and one association.
1. The central bank: reduce the reserve requirement ratio, lower the interest rate on existing housing loans; establish a special refinancing facility to guide banks to provide loans to listed companies. 2. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission: strengthen the core tier-one capital of 6 large commercial banks; reveal three optimization policies for renewing loans for small and micro enterprises. 3. China Securities Regulatory Commission: will issue opinions to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions; support sovereign wealth funds to increase their shareholding in the capital markets.
Capital markets are getting a fresh boost! The central bank has set up a special refinancing facility for securities, funds, insurance companies to facilitate share buybacks and shareholdings, which can only be used for investing in the stock market.
1. Establishing securities, fund, and insurance companies to facilitate mutual exchange, supporting eligible securities, fund, and insurance companies to obtain liquidity from the central bank through asset pledging, significantly enhancing the ability to raise funds and shareholding capabilities in stocks; 2. Establishing a special refinancing facility for share buyback, guiding banks to provide loans to listed companies and major shareholders, supporting share buybacks and shareholding in stocks.
Another cut! After the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered 2 months ago, today the 14-day reverse repurchase rate was reduced by 10 basis points. How significant is the impact?
① The policy rate will be based on the 7-day reverse repo rate in the future. ② Since the news of the adjustment of the existing housing loan interest rate has been circulating for two weeks, there has been no official denial. Moreover, there has been a strong market demand, and most market institutions believe that it is only a matter of time for the formal operation and implementation.
There is no urgent need for a short-term downward adjustment. The September LPR quote remains unchanged. It is expected that the major policy interest rates may be lowered within the year to promote LPR adjustment.
①The main reason for the stable LPR interest rate in September is the pressure of banks' net interest margin, and the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repurchase rate) remains unchanged. ②Taking into account the current economic situation and price trends, the central bank may lower the main policy interest rate, that is, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, by an estimated 10 to 20 basis points in the fourth quarter, which will guide the LPR quote to follow suit.
After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the preferential interest rates for consumer loans from banks starting with the number "1" will gradually come to an end. 2.88% is still the mainstream, and industry insiders believe that in the long term, it will still rema
Although various commercial banks have launched consumer credit preferential activities, the optimal level of market consumer credit annual interest rate is still maintained at 2.88%. In order to increase the intensity of credit release, banks have lowered the interest rate of consumer loans and competing for new customers with price reduction has become a common practice in the consumer credit market. The interest rate center is in a downward channel, and consumer credit interest rates are expected to continue to decline, and the market consumer credit level may enter the range of the single digits.
Deutsche Bank: The pricing of loans in the banking industry in China is becoming more rational, so there is no need to overly worry about net interest margin pressure.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that although the LPR reduction may put pressure on the interest income of the banking industry in China, at the same time, the interest cost paid by banks to depositors is also decreasing, which helps to alleviate the pressure on net interest margin. Morgan Stanley expects that the banking industry will outperform the large cap market in the next 12 months.
Amount involved exceeds 2.8 billion! China Construction Bank Corporation issued 35 notices of non-performing loan transfers in the first week of September. Industry experts believe that the pressure on risk exposure in the bank's retail sector has intensi
In the first week of September, China Construction Bank Corporation released 35 pieces of information on the transfer of non-performing loans in the Silver Registration Center, involving a total unpaid principal and interest of 2.818 billion yuan, of which 34 were personal consumer or operation non-performing loan transfer projects. In the industry's view, the overall risk pressure on the retail end of the entire industry is relatively high, and the industry will continue to maintain a high level of disposal of non-performing assets in the second half of the year.
Is it urgent enough to reduce the interest rate on existing housing loans? In the first half of the year, the non-performing balance of personal loans in the six major state-owned banks has reached 352 billion yuan, and the non-performing rate has general
In the first half of this year, the total amount of non-performing loans of the six major state-owned banks has reached 352.091 billion yuan, exceeding the 300 billion yuan threshold for the first time. Compared with the data from early 2024 (291.371 billion yuan), it can be calculated that in the first half of the year, the six major state-owned banks added approximately 60.7 billion yuan of non-performing loans. Industry insiders believe that in the current environment, it is not advisable to excessively rely on reducing existing housing loans to play a greater role in promoting consumer spending.
At least 10 senior executives of listed banks are optimistic. Has the net interest margin really bottomed out? Fitch raised objections: LPR may be further reduced.
In the second quarter of 2024, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.54%, showing signs of stopping the decline for the first time. Recently, several listed banks' executives have also publicly stated that there are signs of stabilization or a slowdown in the decline of the net interest margin, injecting a strong boost into the market. Huayu Ratings recently stated, "It is too early to determine whether the net interest margin has bottomed out. The government may further lower the LPR to reduce loan costs.
Many major bank apps have launched the "Existing Home Loan Interest Rate Adjustment" function? In fact, it was introduced last year, and on the eve of the traditional busy season for property sales, the 37.8 trillion silver stock housing loans have once a
①The application port for the adjustment of the existing house loan interest rate was set for the unified adjustment of the existing house loan interest rate last year, not the latest launch. ②Refer to the reduction of existing house loan interest rates in August-September last year, and there is also a possibility of reducing existing house loan interest rates in the future. ③Based on the scale of existing house loans in the second quarter of 2024, which reaches 37.8 trillion yuan, the maximum amount of house loan interest that the residential sector needs to repay each year may be reduced by about 300 billion yuan.
The number of private banking clients in the five major state-owned banks continues to grow rapidly, with more than one million reaching 1.055 million households at the end of June, equivalent to the annual increase in the first half of last year.
① The number of private banking clients of the five state-owned banks reached a historic record at the end of June this year - breaking the one million mark for the first time, with a total of 1.055 million clients. ② In the first half of this year, the private banking clients of the five major banks increased by nearly 0.1 million, approaching the total data for the previous year. ③ The semi-annual report found that each bank has identified private banking business as one of the key development directions.
The six major state-owned banks led the decline, and the expectation of a rate cut for existing home loans dealt a heavy blow to the banking sector. As the window period for housing policies in September approaches, how should we balance the 200 billion y
①As of the closing, 40 out of 42 listed bank stocks fell. The banking sector led the decline in all sectors, with the six state-owned banks leading the decline in the banking sector; ②Several interviewees told reporters that the decline in bank stocks today is partly due to the increasing expectations of rate cuts for existing home loans in the market; ③Estimates by China International Capital Corporation show that assuming the average mortgage interest rate is reduced by about 60bp, it is estimated to reduce borrowers' interest expenses by approximately 240 billion yuan per year.
During the first half of the year, while 1,126 bank branches closed, the number of branches for the six major state-owned banks increased slightly by 700, with Agricultural Bank of China alone adding over 800.
According to the data from the semi-annual reports of listed banks, the number of branches of the six state-owned banks is approximately 1.056 million, which has increased by about 700 branches compared to the beginning of the year. According to the data from the official website of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, about 1,126 subordinate branches of commercial banks announced closure and cessation of business in the first half of this year, which means that although the state-owned banks are expanding against the trend, the steady contraction of bank branches is still the mainstream.
The national team did not increase its shareholding in the four major banks, and the semi-annual report revealed that the shareholding ratio remained unchanged. After three consecutive days of sharp decline, how will bank stocks perform in September?
① At the end of August, bank stocks were sold off with a valuation, and the cumulative decline of the big state-owned banks exceeded 7% in three days; ② The semi-annual report revealed that the national team did not increase its shareholding in the four major banks in the first half of the year, but bought shares of China Merchants Bank; ③ Will the adjustment of bank stocks continue? What can be expected in September?
Banks' stocks are experiencing a "rare" big drop, JPMorgan: There is no reason for it!
JPMorgan believes that the trend of funds flowing into high-yielding stocks will continue, and the performance of bank stocks is not significantly below expectations. The performance growth rate of JPMorgan, Bank of Communications, Ningbo Bank, and China Citic Bank in the first half of 2024 and expected earnings for the fiscal year 2024 are still on track, so there is no need to overly worry about banks reducing dividends due to capital pressure.
The effect of interest rate cuts on deposits is gradually becoming apparent, with interest expenses of many national banks decreasing in the first half of the year, and some banks reducing by more than 7%.
① According to the semi-annual reports of joint stock banks and state-owned banks, although the trend of deposit regularization is obvious, and coupled with the expansion of deposit scale, the cost of debt has actually been reduced for many banks. ② Recent earnings conferences have shown that executives of various banks have expressed the need to adjust the asset-liability structure, strengthen cost control of liabilities, and attract low-cost deposits. This will be the focus and deployment direction for commercial banks in the second half of the year.
Bank stocks firmly hold the "iron throne"! The total market value of the six major banks surpasses that of the GEM, with multiple stocks reaching new highs this year.
①The total market value of the six major banks has increased from 6.64 trillion yuan at the end of last year to the current 8.79 trillion yuan, with a total market value increase of over 2 trillion yuan. ②The total market value of the chinext price index has decreased from 11.39 trillion yuan at the end of last year to the current 8.67 trillion yuan.