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JPMorgan Newsroom
Overnight news: US stocks closed higher, Dow hit a new high, escalation of Russia-Ukraine conflict boosted oil prices, Tesla is preparing for the Cybertruck to enter the China market
For more global financial news, please visit the 7×24 hours real-time financial news market close: The Dow Jones closed over 400 points higher, setting a new historical high. All three major indices recorded gains this week. On November 22, the top 20 transactions in the US stock market: It is reported that Tesla is preparing for the Cybertruck's entry into the china market. On Friday, china concept stocks showed mixed results, with WeRide rising 9.2% and pdd holdings falling 3.9%. The crude oil in the usa rose 6.5% this week, while the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed oil prices higher. Spot gold rose 5.7% in five days, regaining the $2,700 mark. European stocks all closed higher, with Germany's DAX 30 index up 0.84%. Macro.
European Central Bank rate cut bets surge, Euro falls to lowest level since 2022.
The euro fell to its lowest level in two years, with traders betting that the European Central Bank will have to cut interest rates significantly to boost the local economy. Data on Friday showed that the business activities of the two largest economies in the euro area shrank more than expected, causing the euro to fall more than 1% against the dollar to touch a low of 1.0335 since November 2022. The market's implied probability of a 50 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank next month has surged from around 15% on Thursday to over 50%. "This report does make a 50 basis points rate cut a possibility," said Matthew Landon, global market strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, adding that shorting the euro is.
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Viewpoint Summary: jpmorgan expects oversupply of oil next year. ECB officials discuss interest rate prospects.
European Central Bank officials expressed different opinions on the interest rate outlook. Vice President Guindos believes that the path is more important than the magnitude of the cuts. Governing Council member Villeroy stated confidence in achieving inflation targets, while Council member Centeno pointed out that if risks materialize, larger rate cuts could be considered. jpmorgan expects that even if OPEC+ extends production cuts, the oil market will still face a significant oversupply. The Vice President of the European Central Bank stated that the path of interest rate cuts is more important than the magnitude of the cuts. Luis de Guindos emphasized that the central bank is clearly on the path of rate cuts, but the magnitude of the cuts at each monetary policy meeting has not been substantial.
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jpmorgan expects the average price of Brent crude oil to be $73 per barrel in 2025.
JPMorgan stated in a report on Friday that the bank expects the average Brent oil price to be $73 per barrel in 2025 and predicts it will be comfortably below $70 per barrel by the end of this year, with US crude oil at $64 per barrel. "Our outlook for 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we expect a significant surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day, and the average price of Brent crude oil will reach $73," the report said. The bank believes that the growth rate of global oil demand will decline from 1.3 million barrels per day this year to 1.1 million barrels per day next year, adding that China is expected to lead oil demand for the last time.
jpmorgan: Even if OPEC+ extends production cuts, the oil market will still face a significant supply surplus.
JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva stated in a report that even if OPEC+ extends production cuts, the global oil market will still see a 'huge' surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day next year. The bank expects Brent prices in 2025 to be around $73 per barrel, close to current levels. Global oil demand growth rate will slow from 1.3 million barrels per day this year to 1.1 million barrels per day by 2025. The return of Donald Trump to the White House could pose downward risks to oil prices due to relaxed regulations and increased production in the USA, while also potentially bringing upward pressure due to actions against Iran and Venezuela exports.
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Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America are scrutinizing the leverage usage of SRT buyers.
Sources said that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, among other US banks, are currently asking investors to disclose whether they plan to take on additional debt to invest in Significant Risk Transfer (SRT) instruments. Regulatory authorities are currently reviewing whether these instruments pose a threat to financial stability. In recent months, as the marketing process begins, investors will be asked this question. Currently, authorities are warning investment firms hoping to buy SRT to use leverage. SRT is a transaction that helps banks sell risks related to their loan portfolios. Since the debt supply side will be another bank, to some extent, the credit risk is merely being transferred.
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Blackwell ai chip production increased, nvidia's Q4 guidance is considered conservative
Nvidia's stock price fluctuated on Thursday as investors believed there were controversies surrounding the profit report of this artificial intelligence chip manufacturer. Nvidia's performance in the third quarter, announced on Wednesday night, exceeded expectations, but the current sales guidance was only slightly higher than expected. Nvidia's stock fell in after-hours trading following the third-quarter report. In early trading in today's stock market, Nvidia's stock price fell by over 3%. Earlier in the session, the index rose by nearly 5% to 152.89 points. Most Wall Street analysts are positive about Nvidia's news. After Nvidia released its third-quarter financial report, at least 17 analysts upgraded their ratings for the company.
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Full text | Baidu Q3 earnings conference record: expected to release new version Wenzhen early next year
Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU; HKEX: 9888) released the financial report for the third quarter of 2024 ending on September 30th today: total revenue was 33.6 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year decrease. The net income attributable to Baidu was 7.6 billion yuan. Using non-US GAAP, the net income attributable to Baidu was 5.9 billion yuan. After the financial report was released, Baidu's Chairman and CEO, Robin Li, President of the Mobile Ecosystem Business Group, Lu Rong, President of the Intelligent Cloud Business Group, Shen Dou, and Acting CFO He Junjie and other executives attended the subsequent earnings conference call to explain the key points of the financial report and answer analysts' questions. The following is the analysis and Q&A section.