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Europe's bond market: German bonds rise as traders ponder the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December.
The bull market for German government bonds is steepening, and the mmf market is increasing bets on deeper interest rate cuts by the european central bank. Previously, jpmorgan economists moved up their expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the european central bank from January next year to December. Traders have raised expectations for the european central bank's easing, with a 20% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next month, and a forecast of a 156 basis point cut by the end of next year, higher than the previous expectation of 150 basis points. The yield on German 2-year government bonds fell by 5 basis points to 1.95%, a new low since 2022; the steepening trend of the German 2s10s curve has continued for 8 months, the longest since 1999.
JPMorgan has brought forward its expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut of 50 basis points to December.
JPMorgan economists are moving up their expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank from January next year to December. Greg Fuzesi wrote in a client note: "Given the sharp drop in PMI, the slowdown in service inflation, and the possibility of continued trade uncertainty, this scenario seems quite likely." He pointed out, "The European Central Bank does not need to make advance commitments for subsequent meetings, retaining full flexibility, including possibly staying on hold next." "Confusingly, dovish committee members do not have any clear push for a 50 basis point rate cut in December." He also acknowledged the confusion, but stated, "it is probably a few".
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