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Europe's bond market: German bonds rise as traders ponder the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank in December.
The bull market for German government bonds is steepening, and the mmf market is increasing bets on deeper interest rate cuts by the european central bank. Previously, jpmorgan economists moved up their expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by the european central bank from January next year to December. Traders have raised expectations for the european central bank's easing, with a 20% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next month, and a forecast of a 156 basis point cut by the end of next year, higher than the previous expectation of 150 basis points. The yield on German 2-year government bonds fell by 5 basis points to 1.95%, a new low since 2022; the steepening trend of the German 2s10s curve has continued for 8 months, the longest since 1999.
JPMorgan has brought forward its expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate cut of 50 basis points to December.
JPMorgan economists are moving up their expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank from January next year to December. Greg Fuzesi wrote in a client note: "Given the sharp drop in PMI, the slowdown in service inflation, and the possibility of continued trade uncertainty, this scenario seems quite likely." He pointed out, "The European Central Bank does not need to make advance commitments for subsequent meetings, retaining full flexibility, including possibly staying on hold next." "Confusingly, dovish committee members do not have any clear push for a 50 basis point rate cut in December." He also acknowledged the confusion, but stated, "it is probably a few".
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Wall Street macro traders see worst annual performance since the epidemic outbreak.
Global banks' forex and interest rate trading revenue is expected to hit the lowest level since the pandemic, influenced by narrowing profit margins and a challenging macroeconomic environment. According to data collected by Coalition Greenwich, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and over 250 other companies' G-10 interest rate trading is projected to collectively generate 32 billion USD in revenue, while forex trading revenue is expected to be 16.7 billion USD, representing year-on-year reductions of approximately 17% and 9%, respectively. Investor confidence in making significant macro trading views has declined this year, as unexpected economic data has undermined expectations of interest rate cuts from major global central banks.
J.P. Morgan: Maintains netease-S "shareholding" rating, target price raised to 185 Hong Kong dollars.
JPMorgan released a research report stating that the expectation of accelerated gaming revenue and strong shareholder returns could support the re-evaluation of Netease-S (09999) valuation in the next 6 to 12 months, maintaining a "shareholding" rating. The adjusted earnings per share forecast for the next fiscal year has been raised by 5% to 57.6 RMB. In response to the strong performance of the gaming business, it continues to be listed as a preferred stock in the digital entertainment sector, with the target price raised from 170 HKD to 185 HKD. The report states that Netease's stock price has risen by about 8% this month, outperforming the performance of Chinese internet stocks during the same period, which is believed to be due to better-than-expected gaming revenue in the third quarter, and in the face of macro uncertainties, investment
Express News | JPMorgan Revises Expectation for Brazil's Interest Rate in the End of the Current Cycle to 14.25% From 13%
Express News | JPMorgan Sees Brazil's Central Bank Hiking Rates by 100BP in Next Meeting - Report
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Jpmorgan strategist: It is expected that the trend of polarization in the stock market will continue.
jpmorgan stated that the current stage of polarized performance in the regional market may continue until the first half of 2025, as investors will need to digest the potential heating trade uncertainties. Strategists like Mislav Matejka noted that the direction of the dollar and bonds yields is also crucial, and with the rising geopolitical uncertainties, the performance of the stock market at the beginning of the year may be more mixed. It was mentioned that the multiples in the international market do not appear excessive, while the usa valuations remain relatively high, but the relative spreads may stay elevated for a longer time. Due to extreme differences in inventory, valuations, and prices, the international stock market in 2025 may fare differently compared to the usa stock market.
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